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Electoral college test

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Hybrid Theory


Since this is 2018, and the midterms are coming up. Id figure id get into politics for a bit. And consideeing black ops 4 trailer got released this me to not activision the time of day regarding the game.

let's talk about the electoral college. what is it? the electoral college is a system run by the U.S goverment that determines the president every four years. I recently had a concern earlier this week. My concern/thesis was that given that some states have larger electoral votes than others, my thesis stated that the electoral college created "fly over territories" meaning states presidental candidates ignore in order to obtain states with much bigger electoral votes. While data exists to support this claim i wanted to test it for myself. Using an interactive electoral college map, i decided to do some testing

test number one: "You only need 11"

Theory: You could win the presidency by only winning 11 states, there by ignoring almost the entire country. These states are California, texas, New York, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, New Jersy, and North Caroline.

result: It is true, however there is one problem. Texas is widely considered to be a strongly republican state, while California has voted democratic consistently since the 1992 election. California flipping to republican i would consider an improbability unless california decides to split into new california. Texas flipping democrat would also be improbable, but given that texas hispanics and other ethnic groups give a 47% democratic gain in texas, i would consider texas possibly tilting towards the Democratic party in the future.

Another finding i did was use 2016's results to compare. I simply removed Trump's smaller wins in order to get as close to 270 as possible. My results concluded that you can at least earn 273 from 22 states. These states mainly consist of the deep south (up to the Mason Dixen line, which would consist of 11 states), Alaska, Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, W. Virginia, Pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, and kansas. I would consider this to be a good strategy for republicans. Why republicans, you ask? SImply because much of the deep south is mainly conservatives, so this would be the best bet for republicans considering elections, mainly due to these states not being solidly democratic, however considering that two states have flipped last year, they arent solidly republican either.

Concluson: Given the research i collected, it is possible that the electoral college did create fly over territories considering one needs only 22 states. However, i will also provide a point thats there no guarentee these states will vote a certain way. You cant guarentee that states will vote for your party unless you have a high influence. My advice to any possible future politicians ziming to become president would be to visit as many states as you can, as often as possible. dont pay attention to the states with larger votes, visit all of them. Sure, you can ignore states with 1 or 2, possiby 3 electoral votes, however these states may be small now, come election and you ignored a clump of them, two electoral votes would possibly become 20. so, pay attention to everyone, or if youre like me, just be lucky.

That concludes todays ramblings.




  • Brohoof 1
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