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Buffalo Man's hypothetical 2022 Hall of Fame ballot


Dark Qiviut

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MLB is in a lockout, but the Hall of Fame ballot isn't.

To repeat from my past blog, every year, a select group from the BBWAA has the privilege to vote for a select number of players approved by the Screening Committee. In order for a former player to qualify for the ballot, they had to have played for at least ten years and not play for five afterwards.

This year, thirty players qualified for the ballot, and residential ballot tracker Ryan Thibodaux re-created its layout for online tracking purposes.

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Here's one filled out:

Any writer with the privilege to vote for the Hall of Fame can vote anywhere from zero to ten players and pick whoever they choose. In other words, they can vote for a player now after not voting for him last year, and vice-versa. Also, pay attention to the date bolded on top. All ballots must be postmarked by December 31 and mailed back to the Hall of Fame to count. Over the years, some ballots got lost in the mail.

There are three main ways for anyone to get knocked off are if they get elected, don't get elected after ten years, or get less than five percent of the electorate. If they don't get elected, they'll be eligible to be reviewed and potentially elected via one of the four Veterans Committees.

If you look at Thibodaux's re-creation of that ballot, four former players are in the last year of eligibility on the writers' ballots. If Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and/or Sosa don't make it, they'll likely become part of the Today's Game Committee ballots, which rendezvous next December.

I don't have a ballot, but if I did, this was my ballot from last cycle:

  1. Abreu
  2. Bonds
  3. Buehrle
  4. Clemens
  5. Tim Hudson
  6. Andruw Jones
  7. Rolen
  8. Sheffield
  9. Sammy Sosa (+1)
  10. Billy Wagner

The "+1" means I'm voting for him this cycle after not doing so last year. Also… (copied from the last blog):

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I use Wins Above Replacement ("WAR") —  a complex sabermetric stat that calculates the approximate number of wins a player contributed to the team he played for — particularly from Baseball-Reference. Unless I use the versions from Fangraphs (fWar) or Baseball Prospectus (WARP), that's what I'll use when I refer to WAR.

These are my ten, much of this C&P'd:

  1.  Bobby Abreu: One of the most underrated hitting outfielders. While he doesn't wow the crowd, he was a very consistent, high-quality hitter. While he has a career .291 average, his 128 OPS+ (On-base plus slugging while adjusting to the era and parks they played in; a number of "100" is league-average), 1476 walks, 574 doubles, and .395 on-base percentage explain why he averaged a 5.2 WAR from 1999-2006 and finished his career with a 60.2 WAR. He also stole bases in high quantity, stealing 400 over his career. At 5.5% last offseason, he barely survived his first cycle. Thankfully, he's getting some more support and may have a shot to be on a few more years.
     
  2. Barry Bonds: Nothing needs to be said about the greatest hitter since Hank Aaron retired. #1 all-time in homers, walks, and intentional walks. Career 182 OPS+ and 173 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus: a measure of the quality of the player on offense, weighed in by the era and ballpark environment; "100" is league-average). Steroid-aided or not, his stretch from 2001-'04 (where he won the NL MVP each time; he has a record seven altogether) is one of the most dominant of all time.
     
  3. Mark Buehrle: One of the most underrated, quiet pitchers. While he may not scream "Hall of Fame" on the surface, he has credentials. A workhorse who pitched to soft contact, the only years he didn't log in 200 innings were 2000 (his rookie season, where he was a reliever) and 2015 (his last, missing the mark by 1.1 innings). He was also extremely quick on the mound, often spending no less than ten seconds per pitch. Since 1990, he's only the eleventh pitcher to win 200 or more games, winning 214. Was the ace of the White Sox when they won their first World Series in 88 years in 2005. He has four Gold Gloves and is an excellent defender; this play from Opening Day 2010 being his best play of his career and best play of the season.

    Here's more about Buehrle's credentials that I recommend reading: https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/white-sox/why-white-sox-legend-mark-buehrle-belongs-hall-fame
     
  4. Roger Clemens: Making his debut in 1984, the most consistently dominant pitcher in the last forty years. Steroid-aided or not, his 354 wins is third-most all-time in the live-ball era (behind Maddux's 355 and Warren Spahn's 363). Pitched 220+ innings in a season 11 times, 230+ nine times (and led his league or the majors twice). He holds the record for the most Cy Young Awards with seven, getting his last in 2004 (his first and only one in the NL). His 138.7 pitching WAR and 4916.2 innings are most and second, respectively, for a pitcher not in the Hall.
     
  5. Tim Hudson: This dude will likely fall off the ballot, but Tim Hudson was a really good pitcher for a really long time. Received votes for the Cy Young four times (including finishing the runner-up to the hyper-dominant Pedro in 2000). 2014 World Champ pitching for the Giants. Was part of a dominant trio of pitchers during the first part of his career with the A's (along with Zito & Mulder). While w/ the Braves, he was their anchor at the top of the rotation. Finished with 222 career wins, a 3.49 ERA, 120 ERA+. Four-time All-Star.
     
  6. David Ortíz: Edgar Martínez is the greatest DH. Who's #2? Big Papi. I can talk about his 541 career home runs, his 55.4 career WAR while spending most of his career as the DH, his legendary age-40 season in 2016 that put him in the MVP debate, and his historic 2013 World Series MVP run. Instead, here's a video of some of his clutchest moments (most of them while leading Boston to three World Championships):
  7. Scott Rolen: The most underrated position player on the ballot, and one who barely survived his first ballot could crack at least 45% this year. A third-baseman with some of the best range in the history of the game, he won 8 GGs and had at least 11 DRSs in every year he played when the stat was born except 2003 and 2012. Best year is 2004: .314 average, 31 homers, 124 RBIs, 158 OPS+, finished 4th in the NL MVP voting. While he finished with only 2077 hits, his 517 doubles are 52nd all time, and he has a career 70.1 WAR, above the 68.4 average among the 17 third-basemen elected.
     
  8. Jimmy Rollins: A cornerstone at shortstop for the Phillies, he was one of the leaders in their most successful run in franchise history. During his career, he led the NL in triples three times, stole 30 or more bases ten times, won four gold gloves, doubled 36+ times in eight seasons, and was a three-time All Star. During his six-season peak of 2004-'09, he averaged 5.1 WAR. He also has the longest hitting streak in Phillies history with 38, surpassing Hall-of-Famer Ed Delahanty. In 2007, he had one of the greatest seasons as a hitting shortstop: En route to his lone NL Silver Slugger, he led the NL or MLB in games played, plate appearances, at bats, triples, and tied for second in the NL in hits (tied with Hanley Ramirez, only four behind Matt Holliday) and total bases (again, behind Holliday). In 2007, he became the seventh player to enter the 20-20-20 club (20 homers, 20 doubles, 20 triples), leading his Phillies to come back from a seven-game deficit over the Mets with 17 games left and win the NL MVP.
     
  9. Sammy Sosa: I can talk about his monster peak from 1998-'02, his three 60+ home-run seasons, how he dazzled in three straight Home Run Derbies (2000-'02), his 1998 NL MVP, his corked bat, alleged steroid-aided career, etc. Don't care. It's called the Hall of Fame for a reason: After the 19994 strike, fans stopped caring about the game. The home race to 62 homers between him and Mark McGwire was one of the most exhilarating chases in baseball history. It brought fans back into the game and saved Major League Baseball.
     
  10. Billy Wagner: The three drawbacks against Wagner are his low innings total (only 903, no HoFer pitcher has an inning total below 1,000), his poor playoff performances, and lower Win Probability Added (WPA) — 29.1 — than closers in the Hall like Hoffman, Gossage, and Wilhelm. But among those with at least 900 innings on their résumé, he's #1 in strikeouts per 9 (11.9), Batting Average Against (.187); and #2 in ERA+ (187, behind Rivera's 205) & K/BB% (24.9%). During this growing era of reliever reliance, relievers dominate for a few years and then flame out due to injury or inability to miss bats. (LaTroy Hawkins's consistency and perseverance over his 21-year career despite his transition from starter to reliever is why he's on the ballot.) Billy Wagner was a consistent, dominant closer for almost his entire career, including his last year in 2010 (his first full year after coming back from Tommy John surgery). Also, despite an excellent 2010, he retired to spend more time w/ his family, sacrificing padding his counting stats. At the time of retirement, his 422 saves were fifth all-time (now sixth with Francisco Rodriguez since passing him). He's the greatest left-handed reliever of all time, only Aroldis Chapman comes close.

Both Andruw Jones and Sheffield are temporary drops. Because Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa are guaranteed to leave the ballot after this cycle, they'll be back.

Vizquel was a temporary drop after he was accused of domestic violence by his ex-wife. A few months ago, a more disturbing story came out, as he was accused of sexually harassing an autistic batboy while coaching in the White Sox's minor-league system. For now, he remains a drop.

Schilling remains a "no." Due to the "no politics" rule, I won't fully explain why, but needless to say, his conspiracy-driven behavior has completely overshadowed his on-the-field accomplishments over his career.

Manny Ramírez remains a "no" for one simple reason: He tested positive for PEDs twice after testing was implemented in 2005, the second directly resulting in his retirement. Álex Rodríguez also remains a "no" after being suspended the entire 2014 season for his role in the Biogenesis scandal.

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Others like Torii Hunter (a really good player, but not great), Andy Pettitte (a really good, consistent pitcher throughout his career and the second-highest win total of any pitcher who debuted in the 1990s, but ballot too crowded), Helton (too crowded), and Jeff Kent (too crowded) are why they're off.

If my ballot actually mattered, I might've dropped Rolen temporarily to vote for Joe Nathan, too.

David Ortíz is the only one with the best chance to make it to Cooperstown. Hope he does. Fingers crossed!

  • Brohoof 2

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22 minutes ago, Sparklefan1234 said:

What does "Final Year Candidate" mean? 

It means final year on the BBWAA ballot. If they don’t get elected, then they’ll be reviewed by the Veterans Committee. Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa are on their final years on this ballot.

Edited by Dark Qiviut
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