Mirage

Welcome back Mirage! Glad to hear you've been doing well.

And thank you for that video. I'm glad there's people who realize that.

@Nsxile Oh my goodness!

I don't mean to be negative either but, the data on this outbreak is tragically incomplete and unreliable. All the experts admit that. In fact, Europe is learning than many of the Chinese test kits have a 70% failure rate. Also, the Chinese numbers are approximately 20 times higher than reported. It was a huge cover up.

It's way too early to use a CFR (case fatality rate) as a risk factor when we know that many people either do not have symptoms or are so mild they don't report it. The IFR (Infected Mortality Rate, that is, ALL infections vs mortality) is way, way, way lower than 5%. Not to mention the CFR is different in pretty much every region is it measured, with Italy being the highest (because testing is not accurate at all). The reason certain regions get overwhelmed is because the virus spreads so rapidly and causes a very high rate of infection after a certain point (Influenza R0 is 1.3, coronavirus is about 2.8). The exponential growth of infections in densely populated areas is crazy high. This is the real 'problem' of this infection. It's spread is incredibly fast. Too fast for healthcare buildings.

But that doesn't mean you're going to die if you are infected. In fact, the overall risk is extremely low. But when 100,000 people are exposed to it in a city, you get 10,000 sick people in a week flooding the hospital. Do you see how that's different than the flu (most of the time)? Infection rate is over 3 times higher, sometimes 10 times higher, so lots of people get sick at the same time. There are many variables involved. So to imply that every person is at 5% risk of dying is not accurate. Some people are at 100% risk of dying if they get it. Most people are at 0%. If you're at high risk, and there's data to inform who is at risk - then you need to take precautions. The world is shut down now - no use complaining about the rest of us sacrificing literally everything to please the drama queens in the media.

The data, the politics, and rumors, the fear - it's all a mess. It's too early to determine the real numbers. But keep this in mind - the reason for lockdowns is because there are so many people that can spread the disease and not even know they have it. So many people that only experience mild symptoms. This indicates it's rather easy for an average immune system to handle it. The people that are getting very sick or dying have underlying conditions - pretty much every doctor on the front line says that.

So please, let's give each other some benefit of doubt. I want everyone to survive. My message is a positive one, and when people are afraid, they perceive everything as negative. So I'm not 'downplaying' and I'm not trying to blow this off as 'not serious'. I just reject the panic, the fear, and the click bait narrative.

(Also, by testing 'everyone' meaning testing randomly, not just people who are sick, which is what most countries are doing because of lack of test kits...and reliable ones at that).

Stay well! Stay healthy! We'll be okay! *hugs*

There was also coverup in the number of deaths in China from the virus, not just the number of infected. I also wouldn't say that the risk is extremely low and healthy people have died from the virus who have had no underlying health conditions/  Also, your claim that it's way lower is not true: there are currently 1,309,439 confirmed cases of, and 72,638 deaths from SARSCoV2/COVID19. 72,638/1309439 = roughly 0.055. 0.055*100=5.5% fatalities (which the percentage has been increasing each time I've talked about it)... If you're saying that current figures do not matter because there are people who been missed out because they haven't been tested for it, then it would certainly skew the results, but there is also the possibility that the number of dead is higher considering some people will be dying at home and in care homes, and may be alone when they do so and not counted in the official figures, so arguably both the infection rate and death rate is higher. Also, that is not measuring recoveries vs deaths, in which case, the death rate would be even higher (72,638/273,546=0.2655*100=26.6%)... Although, that is too high imo and, as full testing has not been done of populations has not been done, likely somewhat inaccurate.  At present, there is no real way to tell, as there are testing kit shortages and it would be quite difficult to test hundreds of millions of people... But yes, you are correct in stating that it is too early to know the true number of infected, dead and recovered. Also, it might seem like its easy for the immune system, but its pretty good at remaining undetected and has killed people before that were young, healthy and had no underlying health conditions... Also, apparently your immune system can also end up killing you via a cytokine storm when it fights the virus. The good news is that 95% of those who contract the virus should survive and 80% won't require hospitalisation. Also, the reason your sacrificing much isn't to please drama queens in the media, but slow the spread to a manageable level so that it can be contained, reduce the number of fatalities and not overwhelm your hospitals.

Also, thank you and I hope you stay safe and healthy too!  *hugs back*