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Buffalo Man's Hypothetical 2021 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot


Dark Qiviut

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With MLB knee-deep in the offseason, that means it's not just free agency, but Hall of Fame season! :D

Every year, a select number of writers from the BBWAA have the privilege to vote for a group of players approved by the Screening Committee. In order to potentially qualify to be on the ballot, you must've played at least ten years and not play at least five after that. While there were about 35 players approved in each of the last few years, only twenty-five were on the ballot this year.

Residential ballot tracker Ryan Thibodaux re-created the columns for the computer screen and his ballot tracker.

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And here's an actual ballot filled out:

Writers can vote anywhere from zero people at the minimum to the maximum of ten. Also, writers aren't stuck to voting for a specific candidate or specific number; for whatever reason, they can add or drop players every year. Plus, notice the deadline in De Luca's official ballot. Every ballot is mailed to eligible voters, and each ballot must by postmarked by December 31 and mailed back for them to count. There have been instances of ballots being lost in the mail over the years. XD

The three main ways a player gets knocked off the ballot are if they get elected in, don't make it before the ten years of eligibility expire, or if they get less than five percent of the electorate. Those who don't make it to the Hall by the baseball writers will get reviewed by specific Veterans Committees. Over the years, many players knocked off the BBWAA ballot get elected in the future.

I'm neither a member of the BBWAA nor a journalist, so I can't vote for them for real. But my hypothetical last year was this:

  1. Abreu
  2. Bonds
  3. Clemens
  4. Jeter
  5. Andruw Jones
  6. Rolen
  7. Sheffield (+1)
  8. Vizquel (+1)
  9. Billy Wagner
  10. Larry Walker (+1)

The "+1" indicator means that I didn't vote for him last cycle. Per tradition, I'm submitting my own candidates on my hypothetical ballot before the New Year's Day deadline.

Also, a guideline: I use Wins Above Replacement ("WAR") —  a complex sabermetric stat that calculates the approximate number of wins a player contributed to the team he played for — particularly from Baseball-Reference. Unless I use the versions from Fangraphs (fWar) or Baseball Prospectus (WARP), that's what I'll use when I refer to WAR.

If I were a voter, I'm picking ten candidates, which are the following:

  1. Bobby Abreu: One of the most underrated hitting outfielders. While he doesn't wow the crowd, he was a very consistent, high-quality hitter. While he has a career .291 average, his 128 OPS+ (On-base plus slugging while adjusting to the era and parks they played in; a number of "100" is league-average), 1476 walks, 574 doubles, and .395 on-base percentage explain why he averaged a 5.2 WAR from 1999-2006 and finished his career with a 60.2 WAR. He also stole bases in high quantity, stealing 400 over his career. At 5.5% last offseason, he barely survived his first cycle. Thankfully, he's getting some more support and may have a shot to be on a few more years.
     
  2. Barry Bonds: Nothing needs to be said about the greatest hitter since Hank Aaron retired. #1 all-time in homers, walks, and intentional walks. Career 182 OPS+ and 173 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus: a measure of the quality of the player on offense, weighed in by the era and ballpark environment; "100" is league-average). Steroid-aided or not, his stretch from 2001-'04 (where he won the NL MVP each time; he has a record seven altogether) is one of the most dominant of all time.
     
  3. Mark Buehrle: One of the most underrated, quiet pitchers. While he may not scream "Hall of Fame" on the surface, he has credentials. A workhorse who pitched to soft contact, the only years he didn't log in 200 innings were 2000 (his rookie season, where he was a reliever) and 2015 (his last, missing the mark by 1.1 innings). He was also extremely quick on the mound, often spending no less than ten seconds per pitch. Since 1990, he's only the eleventh pitcher to win 200 or more games, winning 214. Was the ace of the White Sox when they won their first World Series in 88 years in 2005. He has four Gold Gloves and is an excellent defender; this play from Opening Day 2010 being his best play of his career and best play of the season.

    Here's more about Buehrle's credentials that I recommend reading: https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/white-sox/why-white-sox-legend-mark-buehrle-belongs-hall-fame
     
  4. Roger Clemens: Making his debut in 1984, the most consistently dominant pitcher in the last forty years. Steroid-aided or not, his 354 wins is third-most all-time in the live-ball era (behind Maddux's 355 and Warren Spahn's 363). Pitched 220+ innings in a season 11 times, 230+ nine times (and led his league or the majors twice). He holds the record for the most Cy Young Awards with seven, getting his last in 2004 (his first and only one in the NL). His 138.7 pitching WAR and 4916.2 innings are most and second, respectively, for a pitcher not in the Hall.
     
  5. Tim Hudson: This dude will likely fall off the ballot, but Tim Hudson was a really good pitcher for a really long time. Received votes for the Cy Young four times (including finishing the runner-up to the hyper-dominant Pedro in 2000). 2014 World Champ pitching for the Giants. Was part of a dominant trio of pitchers during the first part of his career with the A's (along with Zito & Mulder). While w/ the Braves, he was their anchor at the top of the rotation. Finished with 222 career wins, a 3.49 ERA, 120 ERA+. Four-time All-Star.
     
  6. Andruw Jones: He may be the greatest defensive center-fielder in the history of the game. Ten-time Gold Glove winner. Five-time All-Star. Runner-up for the 2005 NL MVP behind Pujols. According to Baseball-Ref, his Defensive WAR (dWAR) is 24.4; and from 2003-'07 (2003: the year the Defensive Runs Saved [DRS] stat was born), he had season of 10 or more DRS in four of five seasons. Should he make the Hall of Fame, his .254 average — a result of his production falling off a cliff from 2007 to his end in 2012 — would be the lowest of any position player outside of catcher or pitcher. But his first ten seasons were historic.
     
  7. Scott Rolen: The most underrated position player on the ballot, and one who barely survived his first ballot could crack at least 45% this year. A third-baseman with some of the best range in the history of the game, he won 8 GGs and had at least 11 DRSs in every year he played when the stat was born except 2003 and 2012. Best year is 2004: .314 average, 31 homers, 124 RBIs, 158 OPS+, finished 4th in the NL MVP voting. While he finished with only 2077 hits, his 517 doubles is 52nd all time, and he has a career 70.1 WAR, above the 68.4 average among the 17 third-basemen elected.
     
  8. Gary Sheffield: One of the quickest swings in baseball; despite his waggle, never struck out more than 83 times per season and finished his career with 304 more walks than K's (1475 vs. 1171). Had an OBP of .380 or higher 12 times (10 if you discount the partial years of 1994 & 1995). During his 10-year peak of 1996-2005, he average 4.5 WAR, 5.6 Offensive WAR, 98 walks, 66 K's, a .313/.417/.552 slash line, an OPS of .969, and 154 OPS+. His two best offensive seasons are in 1992 and 1996, the latter in which he had 142 walks and led the NL with a .465 OBP, 1.089 OPS, and 189 OPS+.
     
  9. Sammy Sosa (+1): I can talk about his monster peak from 1998-'02, his three 60+ home-run seasons, how he dazzled in three straight Home Run Derbies (2000-'02), his 1998 NL MVP, his corked bat, alleged steroid-aided career, etc. Don't care. It's called the Hall of Fame for a reason: After the 19994 strike, fans stopped caring about the game. The home race to 62 homers between him and Mark McGwire was one of the most exhilarating chases in baseball history. It brought fans back into the game and saved Major League Baseball. My only "+1" on the ballot.
     
  10. Billy Wagner: The three drawbacks against Wagner are his low innings total (only 903, no HoFer pitcher has an inning total below 1,000), his poor playoff performances, and lower Win Probability Added (WPA) — 29.1 — than closers in the Hall like Hoffman, Gossage, and Wilhelm. But among those with at least 900 innings on their résumé, he's #1 in strikeouts per 9 (11.9), Batting Average Against (.187); and #2 in ERA+ (187, behind Rivera's 205) & K/BB% (24.9%). During this growing era of reliever reliance, relievers dominate for a few years and then flame out due to injury or inability to miss bats. (LaTroy Hawkins's consistency and perseverance over his 21-year career despite his transition from starter to reliever is why he's on the ballot.) Billy Wagner was a consistent, dominant closer for almost his entire career, including his last year in 2010 (his first full year after coming back from Tommy John surgery). Also, despite an excellent 2010, he retired to spend more time w/ his family, sacrificing padding his counting stats. At the time of retirement, his 422 saves were fifth all-time (now sixth with Francisco Rodriguez since passing him). He's the greatest left-handed reliever of all time, only Aroldis Chapman comes close.

Omar Vizquel is a drop. Do I think he's a Hall of Famer? Absolutely. Even though I love and endorse advanced statistic and sabermetrics, Vizquel was one of the sweetest defenders in baseball despite the advanced stats like OPS+ and WAR not being so kind to him. But Vizquel is going to be on the ballot for a while, while Buehrle and Abreu may not survive this one, and Vizquel's current domestic abuse investigation also makes things a bit easier to temporarily kick him off for at least one ballot. That said, should there be room next year, he goes back on my ballot.

Curt Schilling (despite being one of the greatest playoff pitchers ever) remains a "no." I won't specify the reasons on here due to the MLPF's "no politics" rule, but let me make my point loud and clear. His reprehensible behavior crosses beyond politics and into pure hate speech. It's impossible to separate Schilling's accomplishments throughout his career from his in-your-face, post-career, conspiracy-driven lunacy, because he depends on a platform and microphone to blare what he writes and says without consequence. (I won't be arguing this in the comments; you're not changing my mind.)

Manny Ramírez is a "no" for one simple reason: He violated MLB's steroid policy twice, the latter directly resulting in his abrupt retirement in 2011.

Others like Torii Hunter (a really good player, but not great), Andy Pettitte (a really good, consistent pitcher throughout his career and the second-highest win total of any pitcher who debuted in the 1990s, but ballot too crowded), Helton (too crowded), and Jeff Kent (too crowded) are why they're off.

So to make it simple:

  1. Abreu
  2. Bonds
  3. Buehrle
  4. Clemens
  5. Hudson
  6. A. Jones
  7. Rolen
  8. Sheffield
  9. Sosa (+1)
  10. B. Wagner

Edited by Dark Qiviut

  • Brohoof 1

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Honestly, it seems likely that this year will be the first time since 2013 that nobody gets in

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14 hours ago, Eren Jaeger said:

Honestly, it seems likely that this year will be the first time since 2013 that nobody gets in

It's becoming more likely. The one with the best chance, Schilling, has stalled. Those who didn't vote for him didn't add him; and more people dropped him (three currently; four with Posnanski's ballot not public yet) than added him (one — Jack Magruder). Even worse, private ballots aren't kind to Schilling at all.

Edited by Dark Qiviut
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