Clod 8,294 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 4!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 5! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 6!!!!!! 6!!!!!! 6!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 7! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 8!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 9! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 10!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 11!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 12!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 13!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlitterFlutter 1,583 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 13!!! 14 Credit to Kiki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 14?????????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlitterFlutter 1,583 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 it is at 16 I put 13 twice sorry. Credit to Kiki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 17!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlitterFlutter 1,583 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 18!! is the number that we are at. Credit to Kiki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 19!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 17!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Envy 1,092 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 45! Ah geez, I'm sorry. Where were we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 We WERE at 17. 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 (edited) Time for some MATH: I have gone over the previous 10 games and recorded the value at which the count was stopped. The numbers are: 20, 12, 5, 8, 3, 8, 3, 5, 13, 5 Let’s make the assumption that every game has a 50% chance to be over by the time the game reaches a number of posts equal to the mean (average) number of posts the last 10 games reached (rounded to the nearest integer for simplicity, which is 8) Let’s call this event D. i.e. P(D)=0.5 Now let’s calculate the probability for the game to continue after each individual post. Let’s call this event A. Since event B occurs when A does occurs exactly 8 times, we have this relationship between P(D) and P(A): P(D) = (P(A))^8 Rearranging: P(A) = (P(D))^(1/8) Substituting values: P(A) = (0.5)^(1/8) P(A) = 0.917 (rounded to 3 significant figures) Now we know that the probability of the game continuing after each post is 91.7%. With this information, we can find out what the probability is of the game reaching 50 posts (Let this be event E): P(E) = (P(A))^50 P(E) = 0.917^50 P(E) = 0.013139 (rounded to 5 significant figures) So there you have it. If I’ve done my math right and my assumption is reasonable, we have a 1.3139% chance of winning this game. This means we should win once for every 76 games we play. Why did I do this, you ask? For fun! Why else? Oh, and 2! Edit: I couldn't use 'event B' or 'event C' because apparently 'B' followed by ')' gives you and '(' followed by 'C' followed by ')' gives you © Edited July 5, 2014 by FortyTwo42 Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 3 Greaaaaaat. We're never gonna win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 4!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yayayayayala 1,668 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 (edited) 5 Edited July 5, 2014 by yayayayayala Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 6!!!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Envy 1,092 July 5, 2014 Share July 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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