FortyTwo42 1,287 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 Time for some more MATH: First off, if you missed my first MATH, you can find it here. Previously, we made the assumption that the game has a 50% chance to be over after the 8th post. Let’s generalize this and assume the game has a 50% chance to be over after the nth post. We follow much the same steps as before. As before, let event D be the game ending after n posts, let event A be the game continuing after the current post, and let event E be the game reaching 50 posts. Since event A needs to occur n times for event D to occur, we have the following relationship between the events: P(D) = (P(A))^n Rearrange and substitute 0.5 for P(D): P(A) = 0.5^(1/n) Now that we have the probability of a single post succeeding, we can calculate event E, which is 50 posts occurring: P(E) = (P(A))^50 Substitute 0.5^(1/n) for P(A): P(E) = (0.5^(1/n))^50 You can rewrite (0.5^(1/n))^50 as (1/(2^50))^(1/n) which I believe is a neater way of expressing it. Why did I do this you ask? For fun! ... Actually, I had a different reason this time. Previously, I assumed 8 was a reasonable number for half the games to reach, but the recent games have ended much earlier. Since we just found the probability of winning in terms of the number of posts the game has a 50% chance to be over by (n), we can just substitute in values of n to get different situations, which I’ll list below: If the game has a 50% chance of being over after 1 post, the chance of winning is 0.0000000000000088817% (Requires about 1125899906842624 attempts) If the game has a 50% chance of being over after 2 posts, the chance of winning is 0.0000029802% (Requires about 33554432 attempts) 3 posts: 0.00096123% (104032 attempts) 4 posts: 0.017263% (5793 attempts) 5 posts: 0.097656% (1024 attempts) 6 posts: 0.31004% (323 attempts) 7 posts: 0.70760% (141 attempts) 8 posts: 1.3139% (76 attempts) 9 posts: 2.1263% (47 attempts) 10 posts: 3.1250% (32 attempts) 11 posts: 4.2823% (23 attempts) 12 posts: 5.5681% (17 attempts) 13 posts: 6.9533% (14 attempts) 14 posts: 8.4119% (12 attempts) 15 posts: 9.9213% (10 attempts) At the moment, it’s looking like we’ll need to try this game at least 1000 times to win now. Great! Oh yeah, I have to participate in the game too. 2! 1 Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seaweed-Headed Dragon 359 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 thwee! 3 Thanks to Tao for making this sig for me ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silverarrow66 25 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 (edited) 4 Edited July 10, 2014 by Silverarrow66 Awesome sig by XxConfusedUnicornxX ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 (edited) 4!!!! Edited July 10, 2014 by FortyTwo42 Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seaweed-Headed Dragon 359 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 That'd be 6 Thanks to Tao for making this sig for me ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 (edited) 7!!!!!!! Edited July 10, 2014 by FortyTwo42 Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seaweed-Headed Dragon 359 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 8 Thanks to Tao for making this sig for me ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 9!!!!!!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seaweed-Headed Dragon 359 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 10! Thanks to Tao for making this sig for me ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 11!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CMQuickfireTK 751 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 12 factorial I'll be on the #! forums if you want me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seaweed-Headed Dragon 359 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 13 Thanks to Tao for making this sig for me ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 14!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 Wild 15!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! appeared! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arylett Charnoa 4,919 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 It is baffling that I have allowed you to go this far. I shall remedy that now. 1 Aether Velvet is the name of the OC in my avatar. Drawn by me. Deviantart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltoist 303 July 10, 2014 Author Share July 10, 2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 10, 2014 Share July 10, 2014 You and I must have very different definitions of 'remedy'. 1! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sasuke 328 July 11, 2014 Share July 11, 2014 To de 2 燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶燕麦奶 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 11, 2014 Share July 11, 2014 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commander Frost 731 July 11, 2014 Share July 11, 2014 NU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 11, 2014 Share July 11, 2014 1! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 11, 2014 Share July 11, 2014 2!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 11, 2014 Share July 11, 2014 3!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clod 8,294 July 11, 2014 Share July 11, 2014 GIANT 4!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortyTwo42 1,287 July 11, 2014 Share July 11, 2014 5!!!!! Thanks to Pink for the lovely avatar and W.G.A. for the amazing signature! My OCs: Aero Wind, Shadowhide, Ebony (WIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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