Has MLP:FIM jumped the shark?

[MadPointer 75]

Let’s have a closer look at “Poll Results: When did you start watching MLP” at Equestria Daily:
http://www.equestriadaily.com/2014/02/poll-results-when-did-you-start.html

 

I sorted items in chronological order for convenience.

 

 

 

 

 

It should be noted that in 2011 and 2012 More people started watching show in the second half of year than the first half of the corresponding year. The fandom didn’t slow down during hiatuses but it grew even faster fueled by a large amount of fanmade content and enthusiasm. It was widely believed that the fandom was so strong that it would be able to sustainable itself even if MLP:FIM was canceled. The number of fans doubled over 2012 and few people lost interest in MLP:FIM.

 

2013 year was different. The first half of 2013 brought in significantly fewer new people than before and the second half of 2013 did even worse than the first one. It might explain why people nowadays view hiatues as periods of low activity even though it wasn’t that way before. The fandom shrank by at least 25% over 2013(check out this thread for more graphs and analyses of the fandom) which means that there a lot of more people who joined the fandom before 2013, but they didn’t take part in that survey because they no longer follow MLP:FIM. From this finding follows: the gap between the number of people who joined the fandom in 2012 and 2013 is even more pronounced that it appears in the poll.

 

The poll ended on  February 24, 2014 which means about 711 people must have joined the fandom during the first half of 2014. Even lackluster 2013 year was three times more productive in attracting new fans than 2014 year despite generally positive reception of Season 4.

 

It doesn’t look this hiatus is much better than the last one, and people are pinning their hopes on Season 5 bringing more people and excitement. Are these expectations reasonable?

 

MLP:FIM is losing its appeal rather fast and it no longer can get new as many new fans as it used to before. Some dramatic events undoubtedly took its toll on the fandom. However, if MLP:FIM was indeed doing fine, the past events shouldn’t have affected new fans. Yet it appears as if MLPFIM is running out of steam. Did the show go bad as critics say but bronies refuse to face the harsh reality? Is there something wrong with the fandom which drives fans away from it? Is the magic all but gone?

[The Coffee Pony 1,390]

I really don't think that the show has jumped the shark, that would imply that the show's quality has gone downhill, which I don't think it has. If you ask me Season 4 is the show at its best.

 

 

The poll ended on  February 24, 2014 which means about 711 people must have joined the fandom during the first half of 2014.

 

Keep in mind that only goes for 2 out of 12 months, not even a quarter of a full year. Really not enough time to determine how much fans 2014 has managed to draw in.

Edited July 16, 2014 by The Coffee Man

[MadPointer 75]

 

 

Keep in mind that only goes for 2 out of 12 months, not even a quarter of a full year. Really not enough time to determine how much fans 2014 has managed to draw in.

 

It took it in account. I had to extrapolate it into the future as the dark green bar. By the time the poll took place, only 237 had joined the fandom in 2014.

[Justin_Case001 4,860]

Honestly, I think folks get a little too worked up about this kind of thing.  The fandom isn't going to spread like wildfire forever.  It'll have ups and downs, and eventually it will slow down and at some point the show will end, and yadda yadda.  Doesn't mean we all suddenly stop liking it.  And there's lots of shows that jumped the shark, but I continue to watch the classics.  I don't pay attention to this kind of thing, and I'm a lot happier for it.

[\/ 650]

My thoughts are that we've just run out of people who think the way everyone in the fandom does. Maybe there are more who were "converted" but are closet bronies. There were people who jumped at the chance to be part of the group as soon as they liked the show. There are others more hesitant, and those who would like it a secret. The hesitant ones came around, but there are a lot of closet bronies that haven't been accounted for. And this whole thing will at some point stop growing, just like Pewdiepie's subscriber count. There's only so many people on this world, and they can't all be bronies.

[The Coffee Pony 1,390]

And from the amount of people who voted it looks like the fanbase is still going strong.

[MadPointer 75]

And from the amount of people who voted it looks like the fanbase is still going strong.

 

 

If you filter EqD by the "Poll" label, you can see how many people voted in older polls.

 

You can also try to guess how many days it will take for EqD to reach the 600M pageviews milestone.

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104165-lets-try-to-make-predictions-about-the-two-future-events/

[Pastel 7,627]

 

It took it in account. I had to extrapolate it into the future as the dark green bar. By the time the poll took place, only 237 had joined the fandom in 2014.

Yeah but the question is "When did you start watching MLP?"; not everybody goes on MLP websites just after they started watching the show.

I, for one, started to watch in August 2013, but I joined the forums in March 2014.

February 2014 is too early to ask who started to watch in 2014.

[The Coffee Pony 1,390]

Yeah but the question is "When did you start watching MLP?"; not everybody goes on MLP websites just after they started watching the show.

I, for one, started to watch in August 2013, but I joined the forums in March 2014.

February 2014 is too early to ask who started to watch in 2014.

 

Likewise, I started watching the show on February 2nd 2012 and didn't join any brony community sites until 2014. (Mind you, I was on FiMFiction but didn't interact with anybody.)

Edited July 16, 2014 by The Coffee Man

[ReverseFaller 2,483]

I don't think it's jumped the shark at all. I personally thought season 4 was great. 

[poniqueen 7]

To be honest, i felt it did in season 3. But i still came back for season 4 and I feel that the quality improved greatly. Although quality lies within the eyes of the beholder. But the number of new recruits to the herd doesn't reflect on the show quality. It's really not possible to draw a serious conclusion from that.

(edit) And for the record, I started watching almost at the end of season 1, and only became a part of the community when other people started conversing with me about it on twitter. I never sought out the fandom. It found me.

Edited July 16, 2014 by poniqueen

[Ashen Pathfinder 16,153]

Sometimes you can only go so far with pure statistics. Yeah, they're a great measuring tool, but they won't always tell the full story behind a statistical event.

 

It's hard to say what will happen, but the fandom is sustaining for the most part. The show can't and won't gain an infinite amount of fans; that's only natural. Nothing really to worry about.

[Sunny Fox 5,935]

Like "Mary Sue", "Jumping the Shark" has become a popular enough phrase that people want to use it even when it isn't really warranted. To jump the shark, something utterly ridiculous has to happen (like all Mane Six becoming alicorns). I felt Season 4 was closer to Season 1 than anything, so no, I don't think the show jumped the shark... but YMMV.

[MadPointer 75]

Yeah but the question is "When did you start watching MLP?"; not everybody goes on MLP websites just after they started watching the show. I, for one, started to watch in August 2013, but I joined the forums in March 2014. February 2014 is too early to ask who started to watch in 2014.

 

 

I though about this and studied the Welcoming Plaza thread. I noticed that some people started watching show long before joining the forums.

I tried to investigate it further by creating this thread and I also poked other pony related communities.

 

Other findings:

There were fewer people who were recently exposed to MLP:FIM in Brony Census 2014 than in Brony Census 2013.

 

Based on data from Brony Census, I was able to determine that the number of people who were first exposed to MLP:FIM during earlier seasons doesn't increase in in the next Brony Census due to lag between first exposure to the show and joining the fandom. It appears that the lag doesn't affect the validity of data in a significant way.

[Sceethe 704]

i dont think that the quality of the show has gone down.

season 4 had a lot of crappy episodes, but overall, i enjoyed it.

who are these critics you speak of, OP?

 

anyway,there is no denying that the fandom is gonna slow down someday, but i think that, as long as there is new official. quality content,its not gonna happen.

[MadPointer 75]

who are these critics you speak of, OP?

 

I don't know. I didn't speak of anyone in particular.

 

I'm aware of this thread:

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104064-least-favorite-brony-reviewer/

It gave me an impression that there’re a lot of reviewers nowadays and many of have a rather negative outlook on the show. There wasn't that many reviewers back in the day. However some of them notably grew to despite the show. I find it ironic that it happened to Digibrony. It looks like reviewers are respected for as long they stay positive.

[Moved to Elsewhere 11,329]

I don't know. I didn't speak of anyone in particular.

 

I'm aware of this thread:

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104064-least-favorite-brony-reviewer/

It gave me an impression that there’re a lot of reviewers nowadays and many of have a rather negative outlook on the show. There wasn't that many reviewers back in the day. However some of them notably grew to despite the show. I find it ironic that it happened to Digibrony. It looks like reviewers are respected for as long they stay positive.

And at the same time, there are positive reviewers too like Mr. Enter, VoiceofReason, Firebrand, and Silver Quill. Really, the negative ones are Digi, Tommy, and Byter.

 

Also, critics opinions does not equal someone's opinions on the show.

 

Finally, the show has not jumped the shark. It hasn't degraded in quality imo and season 4 was my favorite season.

[Deathstroke 1,564]

I hope i didn't catch a late ride

[Planty 1,052]

If you filter EqD by the "Poll" label, you can see how many people voted in older polls.

 

You can also try to guess how many days it will take for EqD to reach the 600M pageviews milestone.

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104165-lets-try-to-make-predictions-about-the-two-future-events/

 

While I find this interesting, I feel there are many people like me who have moved on from reading EQD and Reddit every day (where the brony census and stats you use are drawn from) and have mopved on to places like the MLP forums.

 

While I still love the show, I got bored with the art and found other things (like dota/christian) to read every day and just don't have the time to spend filling in all the polls.

 

The average brony age in the census, might point to the fact that bronies are growing older and out of college age and have less free time for this sort of thing?

[Jeric 46,837]

Insufficient data to determine or analyze. What is the average lead time from 'starting to watch' to passive participation? How has this lead time changed year over year and month over month? Where is the data to show media topic trends mentioning Bronies in general? In a positive light? In a negative light? Where are the search engine spike data? I don't understand how anyone can even get within galactic range of a final determination of 'Jumped the Shark'. That doesn't even do into discussing is that term even valid for MLP to begin with regardless of fandom inflow and net gains and losses.

 

Say it with me ... "Correlation does not equal causation."

[MadPointer 75]

And at the same time, there are positive reviewers too like Mr. Enter, VoiceofReason, Firebrand, and Silver Quill. Really, the negative ones are Digi, Tommy, and Byter.

 

 

But it's the negative ones who are considered among the least favorite reviewers. I don't see positive reviewers getting as much flak from the fandom. That's the point.

 

 

Also, critics opinions does not equal someone's opinions on the show.

 

 

I agree that it's subjective. This is why I prefer working with numbers.

 

 

Finally, the show has not jumped the shark. It hasn't degraded in quality imo and season 4 was my favorite season.

 

 

It's not how it's defined

See http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/JumpingTheShark

 

 

The average brony age in the census, might point to the fact that bronies are growing older and out of college age and have less free time for this sort of thing?

 

 

 

The average brony age in the census, might point to the fact that bronies are growing older and out of college age and have less free time for this sort of thing?

 

I compared Brony Census 2013 and Brony Census 2014 extensively while ago.

Brony Census 2012:  9,015 participants.

Brony Census 2013: 21,637 participants.

Brony Census 2014: 16,395 participants.

 

It turned out that bronies are getting younger even though they should have aged over the year. As the number of participant go down, girls and furries(overlap is 21%) were statistically more like to stay in the fandom. Don't get me wrong, I might not like the show anymore but I don't have anything against little girls and furries. I'm just reporting these correlations.

[Jeric 46,837]

I don't know. I didn't speak of anyone in particular.

 

I'm aware of this thread:

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104064-least-favorite-brony-reviewer/

It gave me an impression that there’re a lot of reviewers nowadays and many of have a rather negative outlook on the show. There wasn't that many reviewers back in the day. However some of them notably grew to despite the show. I find it ironic that it happened to Digibrony. It looks like reviewers are respected for as long they stay positive.

I also forgot to comment on this. The horse famous types do not represent the fandom.

Not Seth, not Final Draft, not Digi ... Each person on this board can attest to that.

 

That isn't specific to MLP but it goes for any fandom.

[Castle Bleck 19,209]

To quote a wise stallion:

 

[Ashen Pathfinder 16,153]

And at the same time, there are positive reviewers too like Mr. Enter, VoiceofReason, Firebrand, and Silver Quill. Really, the negative ones are Digi, Tommy, and Byter.

 

Also, critics opinions does not equal someone's opinions on the show.

 

Finally, the show has not jumped the shark. It hasn't degraded in quality imo and season 4 was my favorite season.

 

To be fair, not even Tommy was THAT negative. Sure, there are some episodes he didn't like at all, but there were plenty he liked as well. He's just a bit of a nitpicker; and even he finds imperfections in plenty of good episodes.

 

Honestly, while there is a bit of a kneejerk reaction to some negative beliefs, said reviewers aren't really looked down upon by a large majority of the fandom.

[Banul 3,831]

Yeah but the question is "When did you start watching MLP?"; not everybody goes on MLP websites just after they started watching the show.

I, for one, started to watch in August 2013, but I joined the forums in March 2014.

February 2014 is too early to ask who started to watch in 2014.

 

This, basically. If this pole is taken exclusively by people who go to Equestria Daily, it can't be used to accurately portray everybody who watches the show. Its more likely that somebody who has been watching the show for a long time will be visiting MLP fan sites. New comers likely won't know it exists or care enough yet to go there.