Has MLP:FIM jumped the shark?

[MadPointer 75]

 

 

There must be a reason. You created the poll yesterday and there're only 45 votes. The WC finale, a few days ago, got more than 300 votes. Yet both are MLP-related.

 

I can't find it. Would you mind posting the link?

[Pastel 7,630]

 

I can't find it. Would you mind posting the link?

 

I edited my post a bit too late.

 

The poll has been removed, but it was in this topic:

http://mlpforums.com/topic/82112-go-to-post-2014-mlpf-world-cup-thread-for-final-results/

 

The results are here:

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104181-post-2014-mlpf-world-cup-thread/?p=2846318

 

158-155 so 313 votes.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Blobulle

[Jeric 46,848]

If I walked into a Board Meeting with the sales and marketing team and helped pitch a new product with data and analytics as light as this I would be likely on the unemployment line.

 

Maybe if you had real SEO data defined, you would have enough to support more that a hypothatheory.

 

Again correlation does not = ....

[Phosphorous 136]

I do not think MLP has jumped the shark, I just think that it is closer than ever to it's maximum fanbase (asymptote). Growth has slowed down, but the fans are still increasing. You can only discover MLP once, and a greater number of people that like it have discovered it, leaving only a few people unaware of t's existence. The chances of telling one of them about MLP is slim, you would most likely be telling a strict non-MLP watcher or a MLP watcher.

[MadPointer 75]

The results are here: http://mlpforums.com...read/?p=2846318   158-155 so 313 votes.

 

I already stated(post #39) that most people don't care much about the show and they would rather spend time in general discussion, roleplaying. People are using MLP as a way to socialize among fellow bronies and play some forum games albeit MLP themed

Popularity of World Cup reinforces my point.

 

Polls with Twilicorn and Equestria Girls got loads of votes because people cared back then but nowadays anything bad can happen and there would be hardly any reaction from the fandom.

 

 

If I walked into a Board Meeting with the sales and marketing team and helped pitch a new product with data and analytics as light as this I would be likely on the unemployment line. Maybe if you had real SEO data defined, you would have enough to support more that a hypothatheory.

Do you suggest to lie and doctor data to please the boss? Is it worth in the long run to mislead people for a little comfort?

 

I understand that presentations for investors must be optimistic but the boss can make better decisions only if he has the accurate data because if he's aware of troubles, he can try to take care of it. Outright dismissing existence of problems isn't a smart strategy in my book.

[Jeric 46,848]

I already stated(post #39) that most people don't care much about the show and they would rather spend time in general discussion, roleplaying. People are using MLP as a way to socialize among fellow bronies and play some forum games albeit MLP themed

Popularity of World Cup reinforces my point.

 

Polls with Twilicorn and Equestria Girls got loads of votes because people cared back then but nowadays anything bad can happen and there would be hardly any reaction from the fandom.

 

 

Do you suggest to lie and doctor data to please the boss? Is it worth in the long run to mislead people for a little comfort?

 

I understand that presentations for investors must be optimistic but the boss can make better decisions only if he has the accurate data because if he's aware of troubles, he can try to take care of it. Outright dismissing existence of problems isn't a smart strategy in my book.

 

No, I'm saying don't come up with a conclusion or theory without substantial data and analysis. Don't even walk in to the board meeting.

[MadPointer 75]

 

 

No, I'm saying don't come up with a conclusion or theory without substantial data and analysis. Don't even walk in to the board meeting.

 

Can you provide a better data and analysis? Do you you any specific complains regrading my data?

If you can't, why are you so quick to dismiss it?

[Jeric 46,848]

No, it's lacking in granularity, and I get paid to review data and quickly dismiss it. I'll send you my bill.

 

[MadPointer 75]

No, it's lacking in granularity, and I get paid to review data and quickly dismiss it. I'll send you my bill.

 

 

You might be more knowledgeable about statistics and I admit that I don’t have formal training in this area. My data and analysis might benefit from your input. Science invites scrutiny and peer review. However you’re using your alleged expertise as “appeal to authority” fallacy in order to avoid having to explain yourself and contribute to the study.

 

As for granularity. I tried to produce the best data I could. It took a lot of time to produce graphs for forums(each month) and /mlp/(each day) with such precision. I could have opt to do it with fewer points but I don’t cut corners.

Posting this link again in case some people are writing their responses without having read the whole thread.

http://mlpforums.com/topic/102130-brony-fandom-timeline/

 

Episode ranking was my invention and it also took some time to carefully input data from every anon(they had to sort the list of all episodes) while checking for consistency. The data becomes stable when at least 60 people take part in it.

 

The sample size of Brony Census is big enough for it to be useful. Survey generally need only 2000 participants to get data with accuracy of 3%.

[Simon 4,557]

@@MadPointer,

 

Even if your statistics were sound, everything you're saying still relies on a faulty premise...  

 

You're trying to equate fan participation with show quality and you just can't make that jump.  People may simply be tired of the fandom, and not necessarily tired of watching the show.  They may also be migrating to other places you haven't identified yet... maybe the growth of conventions and in person meetup groups is causing a decline in online participation.  You just can't make that leap that because forum participation is down on several sites that it means the show's quality is any way at fault for it. 

[MadPointer 75]

You're trying to equate fan participation with show quality and you just can't make that jump.

I didn't make any claims regarding quality because it’s subjective. It could be argued that newer Star Wars and Transformers are vastly better in quality, at least as far special effects go but not all people share the same opinion.

I say MLP:FIM doesn't have the same appeal as it used before. It doesn't mean it’s worse, it’s just different. The data suggests that the new appeal caused many people to lose interest in the show and it isn't drawing as many new people.

 

People may simply be tired of the fandom, and not necessarily tired of watching the show.

It appears to be the other way around. People got tired of the show but stick with the fandom because they made a lot of friends there.

 

They may also be migrating to other places you haven't identified yet...

Which places? As I said in post #39, MLP forums is the only place which is mostly made up of people who recently joined the forums.

 

maybe the growth of conventions and in person meetup groups is causing a decline in online participation.

The fandom lost a lot of introverts who are by definition aren't typical convention goers.

 

You're just throwing ideas against the wall to see if anything sticks.

 

You just can't make that leap that because forum participation is down on several sites that it means the show's quality is any way at fault for it. 

Even if it’s not the show’s fault, does it bother you that fandom activity is going down and people on EqD aren't very enthusiastic about the fandom music anymore?

http://www.equestriadaily.com/2014/05/poll-results-how-often-do-you-listen-to.html

Is something wrong with it or people just got tired of it?

[Simon 4,557]

 

 

I didn't make any claims regarding quality because it’s subjective.

That's exactly what jumping the shark is... I really don't think you understand what that phrase means.  Jumping the shark has nothing to do with the fandom surrounding a show... it's a phrase used when a show resorts to a strange gimmick to try and keep viewers, which ultimately fails and signifies the starting point of a show's failure.  It's entirely about quality...  The phrase comes from Happy Days when they had Fonzie actually jump over a shark on water skis in an attempt to gain viewers, and afterwards there was a sharp decline in viewership.

 

So while you're constantly citing these things about the fandom declining, we're all just confused because we're trying to figure out what that has to do with the show itself decreasing in quality or viewership...

 

 

 

It appears to be the other way around. People got tired of the show but stick with the fandom because they made a lot of friends there.

You're mixing around a lot of anecdotal stories with statistics.... I don't remember you citing any statistic which in any way even remotely indicates that people aren't watching the show but are sticking around in the fandom... the only thing I've seen you say to 'prove' this is that you've heard that from people.  That hardly proves that's what's happening with any significant portion of the fandom...

 

 

 

Which places? As I said in post #39, MLP forums is the only place which is mostly made up of people who recently joined the forums.

I'm not just talking about forums... bronies are all over the place... there's a large portion of them on deviantart, a large amount on tumblr, a large amount on Youtube, large amounts on Facebook, and large amounts on various other websites.  Bronies could be migrating to any of these locations which may explain declines.  

 

Try and understand that I'm not saying that's definitely what's happening... I'm saying that there are a lot of explanations for why the statistics look the way they do, and you're only looking at one possible explanation and declaring it to be absolute truth.

 

 

 

The fandom lost a lot of introverts who are by definition aren't typical convention goers.   You're just throwing ideas against the wall to see if anything sticks.

Convention attendance has gone up rapidly each year... we started off with a few small conventions in 2011-2012, to 2013 when there were over 30 conventions and this year when we're looking at 40 pony conventions worldwide.  On top of this, we're seeing rises in attendance at every one of the conventions.... Bronycon had 4000 people in 2012, 8000 in 2013, and it's expecting even more this year.  Other conventions have seen similar growths.  Whether the people are introverts or extroverts isn't the point... my point is that with in person forms of meetings rising steadily, a certain amount of online interaction will fall off as a result. 

 

And again, I'm not saying this is an absolute truth... I'm saying that your data doesn't look at all the possible explanations for why something is happening.

 

 

 

Even if it’s not the show’s fault, does it bother you that fandom activity is going down and people on EqD aren't very enthusiastic about the fandom music anymore?

 

Like a lot of the others you've linked to, this poll really doesn't tell us much.  There's a common thing you don't seem to be understanding which is the idea of participant replacement.

 

Let's explain this in another way... let's say the fandom had 100 people in it.  In 2013 50 of those people listened to music.  In 2014, 30 of them listen to it less because the same thing gets boring after a while and they want to try something new.  However, the other 50 people who didn't listen to it before, are now all listening to it.  That means that in 2014, 70 people are listening to the music a lot, and 30 are listening to it less than they did before, but are still listening.  If you just look at that poll data you cited, all you would notice is that 30 people listen less now, and you would make the exact argument you're making now which is that people don't like it as much anymore.  However, if you look at the more accurate statistics, you'd realize that in fact more people are listening to music, just not all the same individuals as before.  That's not a bad thing, it's something that always happens.

 

People will drop out of the fandom, people will lose interest, people will become inactive, and people will change what they do in the fandom... but none of that is important because it's expected that a dropoff like that will happen for some individuals.  What is important is that the overall rates are not declining, and nothing you have cited to shows an overall decline in the fandom.  It's still growing, just not as fast as it did initially which is completely expected. 

[The Coffee Pony 1,390]

 

Which places? As I said in post #39, MLP forums is the only place which is mostly made up of people who recently joined the forums.

I'm not just talking about forums... bronies are all over the place... there's a large portion of them on deviantart, a large amount on tumblr, a large amount on Youtube, large amounts on Facebook, and large amounts on various other websites.  Bronies could be migrating to any of these locations which may explain declines.  

 

Try and understand that I'm not saying that's definitely what's happening... I'm saying that there are a lot of explanations for why the statistics look the way they do, and you're only looking at one possible explanation and declaring it to be absolute truth.

 

I'd also like to add to Simon's point that Bronies (and the internet in general) are not limited to English speaking countries. There are bronies in foreign language countries such as Russia and Japan that don't speak english so there's also the possibility of brony community sites that are not in the English language.

[MadPointer 75]

I'm not just talking about forums... bronies are all over the place... there's a large portion of them on deviantart, a large amount on tumblr, a large amount on Youtube, large amounts on Facebook, and large amounts on various other websites.  Bronies could be migrating to any of these locations which may explain declines.

You can calculate how many bronies on social networks using the following method:

http://mlpforums.com/topic/88343-how-many-bronies-are-there/#entry2778652

 

 

Convention attendance has gone up rapidly each year... we started off with a few small conventions in 2011-2012, to 2013 when there were over 30 conventions and this year when we're looking at 40 pony conventions worldwide.  On top of this, we're seeing rises in attendance at every one of the conventions.... Bronycon had 4000 people in 2012, 8000 in 2013, and it's expecting even more this year.  Other conventions have seen similar growths.  Whether the people are introverts or extroverts isn't the point... my point is that with in person forms of meetings rising steadily, a certain amount of online interaction will fall off as a result. 

Introverts are less likely to attend conventions. I'm glad for extroverts having fun at conventions but I can't seem to find introverts anywhere online.

 

I infer the decline of introverts from Brony Census and topics which are mostly discussed on fansites. It should be noted that extroverts aren't as much interested in surveys in the first place and get bored before completing surveys. This is why they tend to be underrepresented in surveys. The most telling item was the personality test at the end of the survey. Even more important was the fact that fewer people opted to take a personality test in 2014.

After completing the main survey, people were offered to take a personality test.

2013: 18,542 (85.7% of all participants) opted to take the test.

2014: 9,803 (45% of all participants) opted to take the test.

It appears that the number of people who appreciate science went down over a year. It comes as no surprise that Twilight Sparkle experienced the most significant drop in popularity according to Brony Census. She lost a third(in absolute numbers) of her fans during 2013.

 

 

I don't remember you citing any statistic which in any way even remotely indicates that people aren't watching the show but are sticking around in the fandom...

You have to take a look at numerous smaller MLP communities.

 

Also see this thread:

http://mlpforums.com/topic/99638-survey-closed-what-type-of-brony-are-you-continued/

 

 

I'd also like to add to Simon's point that Bronies (and the internet in general) are not limited to English speaking countries. There are bronies in foreign language countries such as Russia and Japan that don't speak english so there's also the possibility of brony community sites that are not in the English language.

 

They are isolated from the English speaking fandoms. People don't migrate between these communities.

It's not like English speaking bronies can join Russian fan sites and likewise few Russians can speak any English so they can't participate in English speaking communities. However, a lot of Russians participated in Brony Census 2014 thanks to the translation.

[Simon 4,557]

 

 

You can calculate how many bronies on social networks using the following method:

No, you can't.... that's a terrible method.  You are ignoring such a ridiculous amount of variables it's not even funny.  First of all, bronies all have a common interest when it comes to television, we all like ponies.  That means that we're likely to have similar interests in other shows as well.  So when you pull up that video it's likely that it'll either have a disproportionately small or large amount of bronies.  Plus that method only takes into accounts people you can tell from their name or icon whether they are a brony.  Plus it doesn't take into account the large amount of bronies on social networking sites that either only use that account for pony related activities, or have a separate account for pony related activities.  I have two youtube accounts, two twitters, and two of a couple other things... you'd probably count me as a non-brony on most videos when I am one because of that.  So it's a super unreliable method of counting.

 

Plus, unless you have historical data for the past few years, it doesn't really have anything to do with what I was talking about...

 

 

 

Introverts are less likely to attend conventions. I'm glad for extroverts having fun at conventions but I can't seem to find introverts anywhere online.

 

Howdy, how are you doing?  You found an introvert.... I'm one.

 

I don't know what you think an introvert is but we don't have a giant sign on our faces that says introvert and cower in a corner afraid to talk to anybody.  We're just less social than other people.  I still love conventions and I go to them whenever I can, I just stick with people I'm familiar with and avoid things that don't appeal to me as much like the concerts and room parties.  I'm still active on forums... hell I spend most of my free time on this forum... and I'm not an unusual person either.  There's tons of introverts on here... I really don't know where you're getting this idea that you can't find us...

 

 

 

It should be noted that extroverts aren't as much interested in surveys in the first place and get bored before completing surveys.

You know, people don't always fall into the shut-in introvert or adhd extrovert category... there's a lot in-between.

 

 

 

You have to take a look at numerous smaller MLP communities.

What on earth does that have to do with anything?  Like I said before, you're constantly making these huge assumptions that make your data completely unreliable.  You're assuming that just because there are active smaller mlp communities, it must be because they've formed a community and all quit watching the show but want to hang out anyway... that is an absurd assumption.

 

Small communities are there for a ton of different reasons... some are around to represent particular types of interests.  For example, there might be a community of bronies more interested in role playing so they wanted to make a community where that would be the focus.

 

Others might be your introverts you're looking so hard for... some people prefer smaller communities to large ones like this, so they seek out those small groups.  Others might be largely made up of a single social group... someone wants to try and start a forum, so they tell their friends who tell others, who tell others... and while it didn't grow as big as some place like this, they had enough people join to keep it alive.  You're just making way to bigs of leaps when you present this data.

 

 

 

Also see this thread:

 That thread tells you nothing.  I'm not understanding how you're still not getting that these assumptions make your data unreliable.  Just because someone hasn't seen all the episodes, doesn't mean that they quit watching the show.  You have to remember that poll was done at a time when the new season was currently on the air.  Not all of us have the hub, and we do have lives, so some people would get a week or two behind for various reasons.   Also newer fans to the show might not have seen everything.  So it's hardly unexpected that when the question being asked is have you seen every episode, you'll have some no responses... that doesn't mean everybody that said no has completely quit watching the show.

 

The bottom line, like I've been saying over and over and over again, is that all the data your presenting is always based on some big assumption being true... that's not how data is supposed to work.  You're so determined to find data to prove that the fandom is dying that you automatically are inserting those assumptions in your brain as absolute truth, and that's making all this data look like it's totally reliable proof that the fandom is dying to you.

[MadPointer 75]

No, you can't.... that's a terrible method.  You are ignoring such a ridiculous amount of variables it's not even funny.

I'd say this method is suitable to tell whether MLP is going mainstream or fading into obscurity. Like I said, someone has to do measurement at regular intervals because I can't use the Internet Archive: Wayback Machine to recover historical data in this case.

 

Like I said before, you're constantly making these huge assumptions that make your data completely unreliable.

I don't see how my data can be unreliable. Are you accusing me of doctoring data? It reminds me of climate change denial. You might argue that my conclusions are wrong and try to downplay the significance of data but you're just pulling unverifiable numbers(such as with MLP music) and believable explanations without backing it up with any evidence.

How many people will participate in BronyCon?

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104165-lets-try-to-make-predictions-about-the-two-future-events/

These number can at least be verified.

 

You're assuming that just because there are active smaller mlp communities, it must be because they've formed a community and all quit watching the show but want to hang out anyway... that is an absurd assumption.

How long have been in the fandom? Where were you before joining MLP Forums in the beginning of this year?

Can you make a comparison from your personal experience if you haven't been here back then?

I'm well aware that 80% of currently active members here joined the forums recently and they have other interests and priorities.

 

I'm talking about smaller forums, ponychan, /mlp/. They used to be more centered around MLP but they got smaller and people prefer to mingle among themselves. /mlp/ is nowadays full of the same generals every day and various fetishes.

 

Also newer fans to the show might not have seen everything.  So it's hardly unexpected that when the question being asked is have you seen every episode, you'll have some no responses... that doesn't mean everybody that said no has completely quit watching the show.

They might be fans of the fandom and don't care as much about the show.

 

The bottom line, like I've been saying over and over and over again, is that all the data your presenting is always based on some big assumption being true... that's not how data is supposed to work.  You're so determined to find data to prove that the fandom is dying that you automatically are inserting those assumptions in your brain as absolute truth, and that's making all this data look like it's totally reliable proof that the fandom is dying to you.

I never said that the fandom was dying. Fandom can be healthy and live for years even without official content. Even fandoms of SpongeBob, Family Guy, Simpsons still exist. Do fandom ever die? You appear to care more about the fandom, the show may crash and burn and you'll still stay with the fandom. I might be wrong about you but there are people who fit the description.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------

 

I guess it's time for me to let it go and move on.

Edited July 18, 2014 by MadPointer

[A goat 323]

Season 4 is best season, so therefore your claim is false.

[paradoxical 1,735]

Season 4 is best season, so therefore your claim is false.

 

Season 5 appears (from the previews the writers gave) like it may be the best season (yet).  How much the more so any other argument of shark jumping.

[TheJLeeTeam 914]

I hope not because I just started watching the show a couple months ago. I just want to make sure it's not too late to join the MLP community.

[Guest90210 3,568]

This is a topic I've been interested in, even before even becoming a brony myself. In fact, I first discovered MLPForums by finding a thread via a Google search on the lifespan and current size of the fandom. A while after joining the forums and fandom itself, I actually posted in that very thread, and presented the Google Trend results for "My Little Pony" search quarries. This was nearly 9 months ago.

 

Here's the updated (Worldwide) graph. "Brony" has had a very significant drop is search quarries, while "MLP" and "My Little Pony" seem to remain fairly stable, although with some noticeable drops and bumps in coverage. Most of the draining interest is coming from North America and Australia, while significant gains are shown for places such as the United Kingdom and a few other countries in Europe.

 

http://s10.postimg.org/it1xbcjjd/brony.png

 

According to TV Media Insights and Equestria Daily, MLP:FIM Season 4 "saw the largest increase in viewership over the previous 3 seasons.", with Twilight's Kingdom dethroning "Princess Twilight Sparkle" (also in Season 4) for highest rated episode of the show. I wasn't able to pull up the exact demographics, but I believe it would be safe to assume the highest gains were from kids and families.

 

That being said, it's impossible to ignore the rest of the statistics. The fandom itself seems to be shrinking. As presented by MadPointer, page views have dropped tremendously for most Brony-related websites. MLPForums being one of the notable exceptions. Less are identifying themselves as bronies, and fan content appears to be slowing down. The old "Oh, it's a hiatus" excuse isn't really applicable here, because the decrease is much, much larger than during previous season's hiatus'.

 

I know it's a broad statement, but the product isn't being "talked about" nearly as much as it was in late 2011-2012, which most would consider the fandom's "peak", at least in terms of creative output and enthusiam. Some brony analyzers, musicians, etc. are seeing more of a shift away from pony content. Personally, from what I gather, I believe there's a lot less enthusiasm in the fandom nowadays. As mentioned, nobody really cares anymore if something "major" happens in the show. Content is being pumped out slower, and discussion has simmered down noticeably. Newer members aren't entering the fandom as often as well. It couldn't keep surging in popularity forever. The boom had to steady out at some point, and that's what appears to be happening now.

 

However, Con attendance has still been increasing, albeit at a slower percentage of increase than it used to for some. For example, BronyCon 2013 saw a 4000+ attendee increase from the previous year, while BronyCon 2014 only gained about 1000 more attendees compared to the last year.

 

It appears to be the other way around. People got tired of the show but stick with the fandom because they made a lot of friends there.

 

As Season 4 progressed, I noticed a large portion of people on here talking about how they hadn't even seen most, if not any of the new episodes. They simply didn't care to stay updated on the show, yet still stayed active on the forums. I myself watched all of the episodes, but struggled to even care when a new episode was airing. It took me a week or so after it's initial airing to watch a few of them. I'm not sure if I'm going to even keep up with Season 5.

 

I already stated(post #39) that most people don't care much about the show and they would rather spend time in general discussion, roleplaying. People are using MLP as a way to socialize among fellow bronies and play some forum games albeit MLP themed

Popularity of World Cup reinforces my point.

 

Polls with Twilicorn and Equestria Girls got loads of votes because people cared back then but nowadays anything bad can happen and there would be hardly any reaction from the fandom.

 

This echoes my thoughts precicely. There's less show discussion, and instead more RPing and general chat. Ponies are used moreso as a common interest to faintly revolve discussion around. I used to browse /mlp/ fairly frequently (and still do every now and then), and it's almost entirely engulfed by generals at this point.

 

Ultimately, I do believe the show's quality has dropped a bit with Season 4. It felt...different. There was a lot of pandering and inconsistent writing. Season 3 was lackluster and too inconsistent, and left a sour taste in a lot of people's mouths. Some so sour that they left the fandom altogether.

 

Has it jumped the shark? Maybe, but to get a more accurate assement I'm going to see how Season 5 plays out. 2015 will be a crucial year in the fandom.

Edited August 25, 2014 by Rivendare

[ScarfaceOne 263]

Honestly, I think folks get a little too worked up about this kind of thing.  The fandom isn't going to spread like wildfire forever.  It'll have ups and downs, and eventually it will slow down and at some point the show will end, and yadda yadda.  Doesn't mean we all suddenly stop liking it.  And there's lots of shows that jumped the shark, but I continue to watch the classics.  I don't pay attention to this kind of thing, and I'm a lot happier for it.

 

TBH. Spongebob has massively jumped the shark, and has lost lots of dedicated fans, especially that disgusting toenail scene. That's why I became a brony in the first place. Sonic is also Jumping the shark. And I may be losing my loyalty to Sega. They don't even have a corporate philosophy!!! Everything will eventually Jump the shark. I just hope Nintendo are alright, and that Namco and Microsoft will make more good games.

And Sony make bad corporate decisions too. I was really angry when I heard No Man's Sky was Sony exclusive. And I Want it to be on Xbox One. But from what I heard Microsoft's controversial policy expanded to financial limitations on Indy-Developers. Sony are apparently looking into buying Hello Games.

[Retired Commissar 305]

I started watching the show in early July 2013.
Joined the Forums in mid-August 2013.
I remember I was very into the show when I first joined and loved everything about it.

During March of 2014, I started to let the show slip out of my mind.
To this day, I still haven't watch any of season 3 or 4, I've only seen the first two seasons.
I haven't even bothered to watch 3 and 4, because towards the end of season 2, I started not caring about the episodes, or how far behind I was.

I don't even know why I stick around, I really have nothing to do with the fandom anymore.
Maybe it's just me, but I don't find any joy in the show anymore.

So for me, MLP has definitely jumped the shark.

[Pixel Stick 927]

 

 

MLP:FIM is losing its appeal rather fast and it no longer can get new as many new fans as it used to before.

 

I think there are three separate things being talked about here, and IMO they are not at all directly related to each other.

 

(1) "MLP:FIM is losing its appeal rather fast": This would be backed up better by a statistic showing how many people are LEAVING the fandom, not just how few people are joining it.

 

(2) "...and it no longer can get ... as many new fans as it used to before.": The fact that there are fewer people joining the fandom now as in 2011 can be due to a whole bunch of factors, only one of which might be the show's perceived quality or appeal.  Keep in mind, the Brony fandom EXPLODED - it grew faster than any other organized pop-culture fandom IN HISTORY.  There is absolutely no way any fandom could sustain that sort of growth - of course it's going to slow down.  At some point, you're bound to hit a saturation point, where the majority of people who are going to become a part of the fandom have already joined, and true newcomers to the fandom will be more of a trickle than a flood.

 

(3) "Has MLP jumped the shark?": This is a question about fans' personal opinions about the quality of the show, and IMO it doesn't have anything to do with the size of the fan community.  A show could "jump the shark" and still be popular (heck, look at the Simpsons).  Conversely, a show's fanbase could completely dry up even though it maintains its quality all the way through.  Fan participation in the community has much more to do with the community itself and what it has to offer, than necessarily even the quality of the source material.

 

Now, if you ask me, I think FiM came dangerously close to jumping the shark several times in Season 4, and I'm prepared to say that the S4 Finale was a true shark-jump, but only if Season 5 fails to redeem it.  However, I am still firmly a fan of the show and a member of this community, and I don't think that's going to change any time soon.  And I'm still doing my part to introduce this fine show to new people and invite them to join the community.

[SBaby 660]

I don't think the show has jumped the shark yet.  There have been two instances where I think it came close, but it hasn't quite happened yet.

 

The first instance was Magical Mystery Cure, where Twilight became an Alicorn Princess, and nearly everyone (I was a rare exception) thought the status quo was essentially dead at that point and the show was going to be about Twilight.  It was a high point, but it ran the risk of changing everything.  Of course, it didn't actually affect the status quo beyond it being a cosmetic change.

 

The second instance was in the following two-parter, Princess Twilight Sparkle, where in one of the best-written scenes the show has had up to this point, the members of the mane six wanted Twilight to sit out a rather dangerous adventure, because she was now a Princess, and no longer just any ordinary pony.  Many fans did not like the way she was being treated in this scene.  But I actually have to strongly disagree with them.  This was not the other five being mean to Twilight.  This was actually a very mature subject being recognized for the first (and hopefully, not the only) time.  The fact is, Twilight IS a Princess, like it or not.  And because of that, she is now more important to the nation than she ever was before becoming an Alicorn.  It would be devastating, not only to her friends, but to the entire country, if something happened to her.  The other five realized this and in a startling display of chivalry, told her she should stay back and let them handle the situation.  This was a very cleverly-written scene.

 

However, the show hasn't jumped the shark yet for one simple reason.  Since those two episodes, the popularity of FiM hasn't really declined.  And the show definitely hasn't gone downhill, because in the next two-parter, we not only got a fully realized arc with Tirek, but we finally have Twilight officially getting a castle, and taking her place as a fully fledged Princess, with her friends sitting in their own seats in the palace around a table, much like the Knights of the Round Table.

 

While it is possible that the show could go in a different direction now, it's still too early to know if it jumped the shark with the last two-parter, which is why I didn't count it as another near-miss.  We likely won't know how close the show came in that one until the end of next season.

[Celli 4,337]

I seriously doubt that poll accounts for most of the brony fandom. It's on ONE site. A fairly well-known site, but still. My answer is 100% no.