Box Office Predictions for the MLP movie. Success or bomb?

[TheMarkz0ne 962]

I really really want this movie to succeed. I wanted to type a thread before I check the new Ghostbusters(I have my reasons ok).

 

I am making a modest and realistic prediction that MLP The Movie will make a total domestic box office of $65m or my highest prediction, $85. I do not expect this movie to even touch $100m, just for sheer logic alone.

 

-This movie will either have a G or PG rating. It will not make the PG Disney money. While Hasbro has a AAA brand status, something like MLP I don't see touching a Pixar or Dreamworks box office number. 

 

-The stigma of the brony community. Millions of bronies will see this movie, but we are still a minority. This could actually work in the adults's favor. Because mommy and daddy, take little Suzie or Timmy to the theaters usually once. Whereas adults will see a movie in cinemas numerous times. I KNOW I will be seeing this movie more than once. So there's that double edged sword right there. 

 

-It is being released alongside Thor III(if delays occur this changes).Many high blockbuster titles have been successful in the winter aside from the summer(Avatar and Force Awakens being the top grossing holiday season movies) So a possible winter blockbuster could detract attention from MLP The Movie. 

 

-Creed... Basically Rocky VII, had an opening weekend of roughly $30m... Imagine this.. Rocky is a major franchise. Granted Creed's total domestic gross was just shy of $110m, but if a movie like Creed, has an opening weekend of that number, how can MLP get half that? I say this because with all these super hero movies.. Rocky as a franchise you could argue is AA and not AAA.

Edited July 15, 2016 by TheMarkz0ne

[Miss 6,230]

Will it only really matters if they make more then they spent on it. So I'm pretty sure it will succeed in doing that. Making more than 200million seems impossible however, in my opinion. I think 100million is a pretty realistic goal, but more than that is a strech

[TheAnimatorOfficial 567]

I really really want this movie to succeed. I wanted to type a thread before I check the new Ghostbusters(I have my reasons ok).

 

I am making a modest and realistic prediction that MLP The Movie will make a total domestic box office of $65m or my highest prediction, $85. I do not expect this movie to even touch $100m, just for sheer logic alone.

 

-This movie will either have a G or PG rating. It will not make the PG Disney money. While Hasbro has a AAA brand status, something like MLP I don't see touching a Pixar or Dreamworks box office number.

 

-The stigma of the brony community. Millions of bronies will see this movie, but we are still a minority. This could actually work in the adults's favor. Because mommy and daddy, take little Suzie or Timmy to the theaters usually once. Whereas adults will see a movie in cinemas numerous times. I KNOW I will be seeing this movie more than once. So there's that double edged sword right there.

 

-It is being released alongside Thor III(if delays occur this changes).Many high blockbuster titles have been successful in the winter aside from the summer(Avatar and Force Awakens being the top grossing holiday season movies) So a possible winter blockbuster could detract attention from MLP The Movie.

 

-Creed... Basically Rocky VII, had an opening weekend of roughly $30m... Imagine this.. Rocky is a major franchise. Granted Creed's total domestic gross was just shy of $110m, but if a movie like Creed, has an opening weekend of that number, how can MLP get half that? I say this because with all these super hero movies.. Rocky as a franchise you could argue is AA and not AAA.

This is hilarious. There's no predetermined box office number for any film.

 

Let's not forget that Despicable Me, a movie with a totally out-there concept with an uninteresting trailer from an unheard of company made $550 million worldwide. Let's also not forget that the Disney label hasn't saved Tomorrowland, Mars Needs Moms, etc from being bombs of epic proportions.

 

Really it depends on the reviews and how good the trailer looks. If the public becomes intrigued by the film, they will pay to see it, stigma or not.

 

If the buzz is great I don't see why $220-250m domestically is unattainable.

 

As for the blockbusters, they don't affect MLP at all. Justice League is probably ruined by the Hack being behind it, and Star Wars is at least 2.5 months removed from when MLP comes out. MLP will also have a big advantage of being on an island in the month of October.

Edited July 16, 2016 by TheAnimatorOfficial

[Regent 77]

It's impossible to make predictions now... but I will say that it will be hard for me to see it in the theaters. I don't have kids or any reasonable excuse for why a 30 year old man should see it. I imagine it will lose a lot of revenue from people like me.

 

I know I felt nervous going to see Barnyard... and later Atlas Shrugged...

 

 

I have weird taste in movies.

[Kyoshi Frost Wolf 41,632]

The Brony fandom is large enough on its own to make it be a success. Count in the rest of the non-brony fans and you have a hit. Only time will tell, but I am not worried about the film doing badly, because it is so very unlikely that it will.

[Denim&Venöm 19,141]

My guess is that to MLP: The movie will probably be a modest succsess. Critically acclaimed yet only making profit off the target demographic, and well, us. I predict domestic profit in the 8 digits. 25 million at least, w/ between a 60-70% approval rating on Rotten tomatoes. 

 

It's a bit harsh, but hey, at least we're probably gonna do better than Eragon, A.I. & After Earth, and those films had a popular book, a renowned director and a big Hollywood name behind them respectively. At least with this thinking, it'll leave room for us to be pleasantly surprised if it exceeds expectations. 

 

Do we have numbers on the budget going into the film? 

Edited July 16, 2016 by Denim&Venom

[TheAnimatorOfficial 567]

My guess is that to MLP: The movie will probably be a modest succsess. Critically acclaimed yet only making profit off the target demographic, and well, us. I predict domestic profit in the 8 digits. 25 million at least, w/ between a 60-70% approval rating on Rotten tomatoes.

 

Do we have numbers on the budget going into the film?

70% is not critically acclaimed. It's very mediocre reviews as far as I'm concerned.

[Denim&Venöm 19,141]

70% is not critically acclaimed. It's very mediocre reviews as far as I'm concerned.

Kay fine, not critically acclaimed. But positive overall. It'll match the overall good but not great vibe the series has followed story wise.

[Unlikeable Pony 2,698]

The Brony fandom is large enough on its own to make it be a success. Count in the rest of the non-brony fans and you have a hit. Only time will tell, but I am not worried about the film doing badly, because it is so very unlikely that it will.

I don't know man, the meme status of the fandom has died and the fandom isn't what it once was back during S1 through S3. Back then, the fandom was loud and proud and had high hopes for itself; Now the fandom is less self secure and, due to the meme status dying, less "mainstream" than it was in S1-S3.

 

As such, it remains to see if bronies will show up in large numbers of if bronies will feel too self conscious to go see it in large numbers in public.

 

 

This is hilarious. There's no predetermined box office number for any film.

 

Let's not forget that Despicable Me, a movie with a totally out-there concept with an uninteresting trailer from an unheard of company made $550 million worldwide. Let's also not forget that the Disney label hasn't saved Tomorrowland, Mars Needs Moms, etc from being bombs of epic proportions.

 

Really it depends on the reviews and how good the trailer looks. If the public becomes intrigued by the film, they will pay to see it, stigma or not.

 

If the buzz is great I don't see why $220-250m domestically is unattainable.

 

As for the blockbusters, they don't affect MLP at all. Justice League is probably ruined by the Hack being behind it, and Star Wars is at least 2.5 months removed from when MLP comes out. MLP will also have a big advantage of being on an island in the month of October.

 

I'm HOPING it will make at least as much as the TMNT movie did.

That being said, like others have said, the reviews are what are important; if it gets good reviews we can expect some high numbers. Otherwise, its going to be a little more dicey.

[TheMarkz0ne 962]

I don't know man, the meme status of the fandom has died and the fandom isn't what it once was back during S1 through S3. Back then, the fandom was loud and proud and had high hopes for itself; Now the fandom is less self secure and, due to the meme status dying, less "mainstream" than it was in S1-S3.

 

As such, it remains to see if bronies will show up in large numbers of if bronies will feel too self conscious to go see it in large numbers in public.

 

 

 

I'm HOPING it will make at least as much as the TMNT movie did.

That being said, like others have said, the reviews are what are important; if it gets good reviews we can expect some high numbers. Otherwise, its going to be a little more dicey.

Memes are a cancer. I think the fandom is still strong, if it wasn't why are we still having brony cons and renewed seasons? 

[A Black Circle 1,586]

70% is not critically acclaimed. It's very mediocre reviews as far as I'm concerned.

These are film critics not IGN

[TheAnimatorOfficial 567]

These are film critics not IGN

Still 70% is not acclaim. You also have to look at the average score.

[TheMarkz0ne 962]

Still 70% is not acclaim. You also have to look at the average score.

I think even 70 is still love. It will get an 80+ rating. Critics were irrationally harsh on Ratchet and Clank, I imagine them being easier on MLP

[Mesme Rize 15,684]

I don't know anything about the american numbers, but i think outside of it (except for maybe the UK and any other english speaking countries) this just won't do well.

 

There are alot of bronies, who don't like their respected dubs and rather don't want to go see it in their dubbed version. I can imagine them rather pirate these movies in english, or just wait for the Blu-Ray.

 

Also, Germany is Filly Funtasia territory. German stores make more money out filly funtasia, then My Little Pony.

70% is not critically acclaimed. It's very mediocre reviews as far as I'm concerned.

 

Didn't knew that 70% was the new 50%.

[cmarston1 5,959]

Let's be honest people, it most likely isn't going to be the same kind of success that something like Frozen, Zootopia, Finding Dory, or even the Minions movie ended being.

I don't think it will bomb, but it will probably end up being a modest success and not some kind of ground breaking record or anything.

[SymphonySketch 12]

I myself don't want to get to high of hopes the film will be a big success, Will it make money? Probably.

Without any trailers, clips, or anything like that, it's very hard to tell if it will be successful.

[TheMarkz0ne 962]

Let's be honest people, it most likely isn't going to be the same kind of success that something like Frozen, Zootopia, Finding Dory, or even the Minions movie ended being.

I don't think it will bomb, but it will probably end up being a modest success and not some kind of ground breaking record or anything.

Ratchet and Clank had heavy advertising on tv and online and still bombed in theaters. MLP has a stronger brand recognition than R&C. Hasbro needs to promote this movie like they would Transformers.

[TheAnimatorOfficial 567]

I don't know anything about the american numbers, but i think outside of it (except for maybe the UK and any other english speaking countries) this just won't do well.

 

There are alot of bronies, who don't like their respected dubs and rather don't want to go see it in their dubbed version. I can imagine them rather pirate these movies in english, or just wait for the Blu-Ray.

 

Also, Germany is Filly Funtasia territory. German stores make more money out filly funtasia, then My Little Pony.

 

 

Didn't knew that 70% was the new 50%.

70% is pretty mediocre when the average score is like 6/10.

Let's be honest people, it most likely isn't going to be the same kind of success that something like Frozen, Zootopia, Finding Dory, or even the Minions movie ended being.

I don't think it will bomb, but it will probably end up being a modest success and not some kind of ground breaking record or anything.

Nobody said it would. I can see Lego Movie/DM1/HTTYD money.

[Mesme Rize 15,684]

70% is pretty mediocre when the average score is like 6/10.

 

Is that your opinion, or is that the be all end all of the "guide for movie critics" if there is one?

[TheAnimatorOfficial 567]

Is that your opinion, or is that the be all end all of the "guide for movie critics" if there is one?

It's a pretty common status. 6/10 is more of a default "fresh" than actually good.

[Mesme Rize 15,684]

It's a pretty common status. 6/10 is more of a default "fresh" than actually good.

 

So it's your opinion. Alright.

[TheAnimatorOfficial 567]

So it's your opinion. Alright.

Actually it's pretty much a fact.

[Rarity Is Best Pony 634]

I feel like this movie will make it's money back that was invested and be a marginal success in the eyes of Hasbro. 

[TheMarkz0ne 962]

Actually it's pretty much a fact.

Ratchet and Clank 

Hardcore Henry 

 

Two movies that got bad scores and bombed and they were my favorite movies of the year. I just want MLP to be a financial success of some degree. Seeing as how Toonboom won't be stressful on the budget, I can see the movie making money.

[weesh 690]

i mostly want the movie to be a success so that I enjoy seeing it and they are encouraged to make another.

 

but isn't it well over a year away?  this seems a bit early.

it would be neat if it was an objectively good movie that turned other people into fans of the show.