Has MLP:FIM jumped the shark?

[paradoxical 1,735]

By the definition from Tropes there are some things that worry me about season 4. 

 

It did the hackneyed "The fictional character is actually real" plot-line -- and added nothing to the character itself.  (except maybe that she's one of those also hackneyed "I work alone" characters)

 

It had the only 3 times I watched the show and in the middle of an episode I said "This is an advertisement."  [breezies Rainbow Power and new home for Twily]

 

It feels like Fluttershy's "scared" arc has gone as far as it can go without breaking.  And I feel that the Breezy episode kinda felt like she was regressing.  She's good with animals.  EVERYBODY in the show was like, "Well, you know best Fluttershy it's animals!" and Flutters was like.  "OH my Celestia, they're going to be angry at me and I can't make these little critters angry at me even though it will inevitably mean their deaths."  And, though I liked "Filli Vanilli," I thought that it wouldn't be possible to get her character any more fully developed in that thread without getting rid of the fearfulness side.  I even liked that she was in the middle of the crowd asking Wierd Al Sandwich about being an official Party Pony. 

If this isn't a transition towards shark-jumping activities, it's only because the writers are superb.  (no doubts on the superb part)

 

Twilight being OP in the finale (excluding friendship) felt like a theme change which could be for the worst.

 

So, am I saying that MLP has jumped?  No.  That it will jump, probably.  That we've seen signs of this jump such that bronies can point back to season four and say, "That is where the jump began!" I guess we'll have to see Season 5, which will be the true answer to this question.

[AlbaTross 1,586]

I'm sorry, but one poll, even one conducted annually, is insufficient data to make any mind of definitive judgment, especially since it is only conducted one site, and a poll like that is only taken by a certain sub-sect of any fandom. I'm a fan who recently got into the fandom, so if we're to take the results of this survey as fact(which, by the way, would be an incorrect way of approaching any kind of statistical analysis), then I would be an outlier. Of course, I got into the show by watching the episodes in order, so, as much as I like season 4, it wasn't the reason I became a Brony. That said, I'd still count as a fan who entered the fanbase this year.

 

It's highly likely that the ability of a show of this nature to attract new fans will eventually decline, and not necessarily due to quality. Keep in mind, the show's popularity exploded, well beyond the point anyone would have imagined. It's highly unlikely that it will continuously outdo itself in terms of how massively the fanbase increases annually, but that doesn't mean that the fanbase can't continue to grow. That said, what comes up, must come down eventually. I have not engaged in a quantitative analysis myself, but based on observation, MLP:FiM is still bringing in a reasonable number of new fans. It is inevitable that the show's ability to bring in new fans will wane, but whether that's happening now, and if not, when it will happen, remains to be seen. It seems most likely that the big decline in the show's ability to win over new fans will happen if and when MLP:FiM reaches the point that the majority of long running series do, and runs into that fans only territory.

[MadPointer 75]

This, basically. If this pole is taken exclusively by people who go to Equestria Daily, it can't be used to accurately portray everybody who watches the show. Its more likely that somebody who has been watching the show for a long time will be visiting MLP fan sites. New comers likely won't know it exists or care enough yet to go there.

Brony Census 2013: 6044 participants started watching show during Season 2.

Brony Census 2014: 3309 participants started watching show during Season 2.

 

Some people might have started watching the show during Season 2 and not take part in the Brony Census 2013 but there wasn't enough of such people to make up for the people who dropped out. The ratio of joining/leaving the fandom in 2013 was 1:4.

if you're positive that the fandom is growing/recovering, you should not be afraid to make an optimistic prediction in this thread.

 

 

I'm sorry, but one poll, even one conducted annually, is insufficient data to make any mind of definitive judgment, especially since it is only conducted one site, and a poll like that is only taken by a certain sub-sect of any fandom.

 

 

Have you seen this thread? 

http://mlpforums.com/topic/102130-brony-fandom-timeline/

 

Did I fail to cover any major MLP community?

[Luna 831 466]

No it has not do you know what jump the shark it has not did anything crazy to indicate that.

[AlbaTross 1,586]

Brony Census 2013: 6044 participants started watching show during Season 2.

Brony Census 2014: 3309 participants started watching show during Season 2.

 

Some people might have started watching the show during Season 2 and not take part in the Brony Census 2013 but there wasn't enough of such people to make up for the people who dropped out. The ratio of joining/leaving the fandom in 2013 was 1:4.

if you're positive that the fandom is growing/recovering, you should not be afraid to make an optimistic prediction in this thread.

 

Have you seen this thread? 

http://mlpforums.com/topic/102130-brony-fandom-timeline/

 

Did I fail to cover any major MLP community?

No, I hadn't seen that. It looks like you did do your homework after all. I'm a new Brony, so I couldn't possibly tell you what all the major Brony communities are. I found this one by googling "my little pony forum", and this is the only one I've joined or even checked out. Given what I've seen and heard though, I don't think there's cause for concern just yet. As far as I know, there are plenty of Bronies around. If you report another decline next year, maybe then, there would be enough data to indicate a high likelihood that the fanbase is falling by the wayside. I've never seen stats used in that particular way before. I suppose it would be out of line to ask how you acquired all that data, but I'm impressed you were able to do it.

[MadPointer 75]

I've never seen stats used in that particular way before. I suppose it would be out of line to ask how you acquired all that data, but I'm impressed you were able to do it.

 

 

I used the search members feature on forums to find out how many people [joined the forums/last time visited] each month. Members are considered gone when they stop posting/visiting. Members are considered active during the whole period between joining the forums and the last time they post(or log in) a on the forums.

 

I don't have data for latest 3 months because people might still come back after a few months of inactivity. It would go against my integrity to claim that people, who haven't logged in for a week, are gone for good in order to make a dramatic graph.

[Courageous Thunder Dash 7,824]

I don't think it jumped the shark. 

[BassBrony 33]

Nope. There has been a decline in the number of new bronies but I feel like that's normal for any fan group, especially after an exploding boom we caused in 2011. I've seen (and been in) a lot of fandoms on their last legs, this one showing no signs of it at the moment

[Jangocoolguy 433]

Friends, I have seen and experienced when a show has jumped the shark, as well as read up on the subject. And I can say with great confidence that My Little Pony: Friendship has NOT. Oh sure, Season 4 had some bad spots early on, but it had more good ones.

 

Pulling in new fans and the show's quality are NOT the same thing. FiM is not the big deal it once was and may no longer attract people like it used to. But that doesn't mean it's taken a turn for the worse. Not by a long shot.

 

There are several ways a show can jump, but MLP hasn't gone there (yet. let's hope they stay away from it).

 

Would ya'll like the full list of how it could happen?

Edited July 16, 2014 by Jangobadass

[ggg-2 3,553]

like others before me, to quote quite possibly the wisest pony this side of Celestia: "NNNNNOPE"! if anything, it's done the opposite, which is grow the beard. (funnily enough, that phrase is coined from Star Trek: the Next Generation, while series creator and original forerunner Lauren Faust is a major trekkie)

[Jangocoolguy 433]

funnily enough, that phrase is coined from Star Trek: the Next Generation, while series creator and original forerunner Lauren Faust is a major trekkie)

 

...that helps explain Discord & John D...

[Spinelspike 78]

ehhhhhhhhh, I don't know. It's very hard to judge the state of affairs with the fandom based on statistics alone, especially ones only taken from the fans who chose to go onto Equestria Daily to enter that poll. We don't know quite how many fans chose not to do that poll, or didn't even know about it.

Also, the fandom has changed a lot, becoming much more diverse, but also split. I know many bronies that state that they are bronies, but just choose to not get involved in fan discussions or fan sites. Some bronies just like to watch the show and leave it at that. Other bronies are completely different.

 

It's an interesting piece of research I'll admit, but I wouldn't declare anything over statistics from one site alone.

[PrymeStriker 408]

Not yet, but the first half of season four was treading some pretty thin ice. With 22 minutes of insolence such as Power Ponies, Daring Don't, Rainbow Falls, and the insult to all intellect and writing capability (also known as Simple Ways), I thought this season was going to drag the show downhill. Luckily, the latter half saved the series from drowning in its own shit, especially the incredible finale.

[MadPointer 75]

Your personal experience is anecdotal evidence. Many bronies don’t care about the show anymore. There’s a growing number of people who consider themselves bronies yet they don’t watch the show or they stopped watching it because they didn't like it anymore or just can’t be bothered to get around to keep updated on the show. If you take a look at smaller MLP fansites, you’ll see close-knit communities of people who know each other for a long time. However they no longer actively discuss pony related subjects. They rather discuss other topics using pictures of ponies as emoticons.

 

As for MLP:FIM, it’s the biggest forums and it’s the only place which is mostly made up of people who recently joined the forums as opposed to communities of old friends. MLP Forums has about 170 members logged in at some point during a day and at least 930 members visit the forums each day.

 

This thread must be one of the most provoking ones and it has a attention grabbing title. Yet it’s unlikely that it’ll get at least 70 votes while older polls could easily get over a hundred votes. Most members don’t appear to follow this section of the forums anymore. They spend most of the time in general media discussion and roleplaying.

[Simon 4,557]

I think you're misinterpreting the poll... 

 

Presumably, almost all the people who answered the poll are still fans or they wouldn't be on Equestria Daily answering polls.  So while it does show that the growth rate of the fandom is dropping, the fandom isn't losing its fans which is normally what you'd see if the show 'jumped the shark'.

 

Honestly, this growth pattern isn't anything unexpected or to be concerned about... you have smaller numbers in the very early points in the fandom because the fandom hadn't caught on quite as much.  Then we see steady healthy growth from 2011-2012.  That's typical because this is when the fandom caught on and started getting notoriety.  The natural evolution of that is a drop off...

 

To think of it another way, if you advertise a product on television constantly, it's going to sell a lot at the beginning, and then the numbers will drop off... not because the product has declined in quality, but because the people who would be interested in the product already have it and don't need to buy it again.

 

The same is true here... MLP has certain places which it's primarily 'advertised'.  Deviantart, Tumblr, Twitter, 4chan... ponies have been posted on those sites constantly for a few years now, so we're advertising to the same people.  People still join the fandom from those places, but it's just natural to get reduced numbers over time.

 

Point is, none of this is unexpected, and while it's not necessarily a good thing that we're getting a declining number of people joining the fandom, the fandom is still growing in size and we're seeing promising retention of fans with that big of numbers of fans that are still fans after 2-3 years.  And certainly there's no evidence of a decline in show quality from that chart... so it certainly hasn't jumped the shark.

[MadPointer 75]

Presumably, almost all the people who answered the poll are still fans or they wouldn't be on Equestria Daily answering polls.  So while it does show that the growth rate of the fandom is dropping, the fandom isn't losing its fans which is normally what you'd see if the show 'jumped the shark'.

 

 

I was able to infer it from Brony Census. See my posts #21 and #28.

 

How many people do you think will take part in Brony Census 2015?

You can post your prediction there: http://mlpforums.com/topic/104165-lets-try-to-make-predictions-about-the-two-future-events/

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Apparently I haven't covered /mlp/ yet.

 

/mlp/ post count

 

 

 

 

 

/mlp/

23.10.2013

106 anons

 

 

 

 

 

/mlp/

11.06.2014

83 anons

 

 

 

 

 

/mlp/ 

23.10.2013 vs 11.06.2014

 

 

 

 

[Simon 4,557]

 

 

I was able to infer it from Brony Census. See my posts #21 and #28.

The Brony Census data really doesn't tell you anything...

 

First of all, of course there's going to be a drop in the number of season 2 fans from one year to the next... you're talking about a number which can only decrease.  Plus there are so many dozens of variables your analysis isn't taking into effect.  How were the two census polls advertised each year, for example?  If the census was primarily advertised on Equestria Daily both years it might just represent a drop in older fan's interest of Equestria Daily.  If it was advertised in two different places primarily, then you would be attracting different types of bronies from year to year.  You just can't compare them from year to year and expect to get reliable interpretations of the data.

 

Also, again while we see a drop in the number of fans who joined in season 2, which is inevitable, we're seeing an overall growth in the fandom which indicates it's still healthy.

You also talked about the age of viewers dropping... that doesn't mean the show jumped the shark at all?  It means the brony fandom is changing but that's hardly the same thing as jumping the shark.  All that really tells us is that the fandom is growing and attracting new and different people.

 

The only thing that would indicate what you're trying to say this data does is showing a sharp decline in the viewership after some event.  That's jumping the shark...  If after Twilight getting wings, for example, viewership dropped in half, then it would indicate that.  But what you're talking about just doesn't show what you think it does...

As for the 4Chan data, that's particularly meaningless.  If you remember how this fandom got started, it was born on 4chan, so of course as the fandom moved away into its own thing, /mlp/ participation would decline or not grow in accordance with the rest of the fandom.  It really doesn't indicate anything having to do with the show at large.

[MadPointer 75]

The Brony Census data really doesn't tell you anything...   First of all, of course there's going to be a drop in the number of season 2 fans from one year to the next... you're talking about a number which can only decrease.  .

 

 

Some people in this thread posited that it should increase due to the lag between first exposure to the show and joining the fandom. This is why I showed that it's not the case.

 

 

Plus there are so many dozens of variables your analysis isn't taking into effect.  How were the two census polls advertised each year, for example?  If the census was primarily advertised on Equestria Daily both years it might just represent a drop in older fan's interest of Equestria Daily.  If it was advertised in two different places primarily, then you would be attracting different types of bronies from year to year.

 

 

Brony Census 2014 was advertised in many places. Additionally, it was available in 8 languages which helped attract more people who was previously unable to take part in the survey due to language barrier. Brony Census 2014 had 9 times more people from my country than Brony Census 2013.

[Scoots and Dash 208]

I started watching the show, but wasn't involved in any of the communities. I believe I got into it mid Season 2, or somewhere around there. I know far too many bronies/pegasisters who love the show, but honestly don't use any form of community to express their love. Some people just don't like forums, some find content, look at it, share it with their friends, but don't necessarily join in the conversation. I hadn't even heard of this poll until this post. 

Edited July 17, 2014 by Scoots and Dash

[Bastion 414]

Not really no, Everyone feared that the show would "jump the shark" on the Twilight Alicorn incident (T.A.I)

but it really did not, even feared it would jump the shark after Equestria girls but nope still going strong!

[paradoxical 1,735]

Equestria Girls jumped the shark so hard it landed in it's own franchise.  And as long as it doesn't have (significant) negative impact on the show, I'm fine with that.

[Pastel 7,630]

Your personal experience is anecdotal evidence. Many bronies don’t care about the show anymore. There’s a growing number of people who consider themselves bronies yet they don’t watch the show or they stopped watching it because they didn't like it anymore or just can’t be bothered to get around to keep updated on the show. If you take a look at smaller MLP fansites, you’ll see close-knit communities of people who know each other for a long time. However they no longer actively discuss pony related subjects. They rather discuss other topics using pictures of ponies as emoticons.

 

As for MLP:FIM, it’s the biggest forums and it’s the only place which is mostly made up of people who recently joined the forums as opposed to communities of old friends. MLP Forums has about 170 members logged in at some point during a day and at least 930 members visit the forums each day.

 

This thread must be one of the most provoking ones and it has a attention grabbing title. Yet it’s unlikely that it’ll get at least 70 votes while older polls could easily get over a hundred votes. Most members don’t appear to follow this section of the forums anymore. They spend most of the time in general media discussion and roleplaying.

Don't forget we're in the middle of a hiatus.

Plus I'm sure some people don't want to vote.

(The World Cup polls used to get more than 200 votes per day)

Edited July 17, 2014 by Blobulle

[MadPointer 75]

Don't forget we're in the middle of a hiatus.

 

Since when is it used as an excuse?

 

If you take a look at hiatus between Season 2 and Season 3, you could see that EqD was doing fine during that period. 

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104165-lets-try-to-make-predictions-about-the-two-future-events/

 

Know Your Meme used to have to have over 20,000 pageviews each day(the data is from the MLP page not the one on gallery) in the summer of 2012 and MLP gallery had been always the most watched. Only Botched Ecce Homo Painting was able to top MLP gallery for a few days. Nowadays it's 1,300 pagaviews each day and MLP is behind Super Smash Bros and Pokemon.

You can how amount of submission to KYM changed over time there:

http://mlpforums.com/topic/101678-is-it-the-same-anymore/page-2#entry2772003

 

 

Plus I'm sure some people don't want to vote.

 

Why? Is it the same reason they don’t want to post in this thread?

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104165-lets-try-to-make-predictions-about-the-two-future-events/

 

Edited July 17, 2014 by MadPointer

[IridscentNionios 1,420]

I think for the most part its fine...

 

 

But for goodness sake... DITCH THE DEUS EX MACHINA DEFEATS OF VILLAINS. SERIOUSLY...

[Pastel 7,630]

Why? Is it the same reason they don’t want to post in this thread?

http://mlpforums.com/topic/104165-lets-try-to-make-predictions-about-the-two-future-events/

I think so. Maybe they're not interested by this topic.

 

EDIT: But I'm intrigued by your figures. Still, I think what @Justin_Case001 said is true:

 

Honestly, I think folks get a little too worked up about this kind of thing.  The fandom isn't going to spread like wildfire forever.  It'll have ups and downs, and eventually it will slow down and at some point the show will end, and yadda yadda.  Doesn't mean we all suddenly stop liking it.  And there's lots of shows that jumped the shark, but I continue to watch the classics.  I don't pay attention to this kind of thing, and I'm a lot happier for it.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Blobulle