health How Long Can The COVID-19 Lockdown Realistically Last?

[Spark Plug 27]

I'd say no later than June here in America. if we keep things shut down for longer than that I fear the worst for our economy. 

[Splashee 28,563]

Long. I predict it will be a longer time than any of you will estimate. Currently, the U.S. has taken over the top over China and Italy (I don't remember which one it was before). It has only begun. This is a life changer event.

 

The cold virus that turned out to change the world to the better/worse, we'll see?

[The Historian 516]

Realistically, it needs to last as long as the virus remains a threat. While it is unlikely to last more than twelve months, but lasting four to six, even up to eight, would not be outside of the realm of possibility. I don't see it lasting nearly as long as historical pandemics, but I don't see it ending within the next month or two.

[Patty Thundersnow 4,163]

Realistically, it can't last through June. The peak will be hit fairly soon across many states, and I think we'll be on the downside of this by May.

[Splashee 28,563]

4 hours ago, Patty Whirlwind said:

Realistically, it can't last through June. The peak will be hit fairly soon across many states, and I think we'll be on the downside of this by May.

Sound optimistic.

 

I think the peak will be in May. Just throw in the variable human into the mix, and you get all kinds of peaks.

[Olly 1,011]

early next month we'll probably start moving on with our lives. 

[Olly 1,011]

3 minutes ago, Bas said:

Her very optimistic.  While I am not sure the full lockdown will be in place, I anticipate partof it's measured for 3 months at least, likely more. If you loose it rn, infection rate will spike hard. I dont see huge gatherings allowed for a long time. 

The question is which other measures can be taken to stop the spreading.

Okay, honest question. How would we be able to go 3 months uninterrupted lockdown without suffering economic collapse? 

People have to live their lives. At some point, some point soon- something's going to give. Most of the people who do get this virus recover from it. This isn't the plague, for god's sake. 

[bwrosas 252]

The warmer the weather,( 75+) the better things will be. This virus doesn't like heat. Also some say when you know who is out, suddenly people will get better.

Edited April 7, 2020 by bwrosas

[Oblivion 20,266]

I have said it once I will say it again. The scariest thing about this virus is the fact it gives governments far too much free reign over society. Governments are telling people "You HAVE to do this or you get arrested!" Businesses being told they "HAVE to shut down or they lose their license or get arrested as well! I'm fairly certain the government or at least many in charge of this country (the U.S.) are loving this because it gives them the power to do basically what they want. Some politicians are even using this as an ecuse to push for gun control etc.

   With that said I think it will go on until they get a vaccine whipped up for it! 

[Oblivion 20,266]

1 hour ago, Bas said:

It is almost as if citizens are expected to follow laws. Oh wait.

Source or it didn't happen.

If you are not fine with the current solution, come up and explain a better one.

 

[Prospekt 11,018]

It's one of the biggest dilemmas that many, state, and national governments have faced in a very long time. The Governor here in Colorado suddenly wants to try and lift the stay-at-home order on April 26th and I think he's either being far too optimistic or straight up lying. Even the school closures are set to last through late May when the semester ends.

In the US, we're in a tug-of-war between keeping the economy from imploding and preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths that may occur if we let off the gas too soon. I'm gonna predict we'll start to let up in late May-early June, cases will spike again, and we're going to have to shut down again if we don't vastly improve testing so we know exactly who has the virus and who they have come into contact with. South Korea did all of that early, while America struggles big time to even begin mass testing... President Trump said last week that we had tested a million people, but that's actually only about 20,000 people on average per state and probably even less in most states because of inflated numbers in New York. We need these quick 15 minute tests that are getting approved, and we need them at every hospital and clinic in the country or we're never going to be able to control this mess.

My friend from Incheon says things are fine there now. I envy the people of South Korea, who have leadership that actually gave a damn early on. I only hope that here in the US, we can follow their example in order to find a way to safely let off the gas and save the economy at the same time.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Prospekt

[Splashee 28,563]

1 hour ago, Prospekt said:

It's one of the biggest dilemmas that many, state, and national governments have faced in a very long time. The Governor here in Colorado suddenly wants to try and lift the stay-at-home order on April 26th and I think he's either being far too optimistic or straight up lying. Even the school closures are set to last through late May when the semester ends.

In the US, we're in a tug-of-war between keeping the economy from imploding and preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths that may occur if we let off the gas too soon. I'm gonna predict we'll start to let up in late May-early June, cases will spike again, and we're going to have to shut down again if we don't vastly improve testing so we know exactly who has the virus and who they have come into contact with. South Korea did all of that early, while America struggles big time to even begin mass testing... President Trump said last week that we had tested a million people, but that's actually only about 20,000 people on average per state and probably even less in most states because of inflated numbers in New York. We need these quick 15 minute tests that are getting approved, and we need them at every hospital and clinic in the country or we're never going to be able to control this mess.

My friend from Incheon says things are fine there now. I envy the people of South Korea, who have leadership that actually gave a damn early on. I only hope that here in the US, we can follow their example in order to find a way to safely let off the gas and save the economy at the same time.

Seems to be a big discussion about US and South Korea. Are they even on the same scale, or is that just political arguing?

 

And I am sitting in a country (Sweden) that does nothing, and says we should be ready to say good bye to our loved ones. Feel free to compare Sweden to the state of Michigan, as the size and population is similar. And see how the development will head.

 

Of course, people and traditions are different, and there are many different factors to count in, like how accurate the testing is.

 

This thing needs to hit really big and hard, before we know when it will end. And it might not yet have happened.

[Olly 1,011]

5 hours ago, Bas said:

I don't mean this offensive, but I don't think you understood the severity of the situation.

Okay that was more of an emotional reaction. Not that I believe that the virus is totally harmless, but I do fear the reaction to it more. 

1 hour ago, Prospekt said:

It's one of the biggest dilemmas that many, state, and national governments have faced in a very long time. The Governor here in Colorado suddenly wants to try and lift the stay-at-home order on April 26th and I think he's either being far too optimistic or straight up lying. Even the school closures are set to last through late May when the semester ends.

In the US, we're in a tug-of-war between keeping the economy from imploding and preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths that may occur if we let off the gas too soon.

Colorado is a somewhat sparsely populated state, with one major city. So that may have something to do with the governor's decision. Don't expect "hundreds of thousands" of deaths, here's the stats from wiki: 

 " As of 7 April 2020, more than 1.41 million cases have been reported in more than 200 countries and territories, resulting in more than 81,100 deaths. More than 298,000 people have recovered. "

Out of everyone on the planet since this started, around 81,000 have died. Mostly older people, and those with weakened immune systems for various reasons. "hundreds of thousands" of people have recovered, not died. Let's just keep that in mind before we imagine an unstoppable, totally fatal, terrifying, 21st century black plague. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Olly

[Splashee 28,563]

3 minutes ago, Olly said:

Out of everyone on the planet since this started, around 81,000 have died. Mostly older people, and those with weakened immune systems for various reasons. "hundreds of thousands" of people have recovered, not died. Let's just keep that in mind before we imagine an unstoppable, totally fatal, terrifying, 21st century black plague.

It is not THAT many people who have died, yes. But it is from the same cause, and that is concerning. We know what we are dealing with.

 

Imagine if it was "global warming" instead, a cause that is highly debatable as either real or not. The Covidvirus is real, and it is ruining many of our lives right now. We are dealing with something that even the governments know are real. There is no conspiracy.

[Evil Pink One 13,506]

Animals get infected by covid too you know. So even if we are social distancing, animals arent. So wed still get infected..so itll be over when the cure gets here.

[Olly 1,011]

1 hour ago, Super Splashee said:

Imagine if it was "global warming" instead, a cause that is highly debatable as either real or not. 

uh

 

 

por freaking que ?

[Splashee 28,563]

7 hours ago, Bas said:

I think only around 2 cases of animals carrying the virus were reported.

Good to know!

I didn't even think that it animals could be carrier.

[Evil Pink One 13,506]

In the Philippines a cat was found out to have one....cats a pest in Philippines sooooo gg i guess

[Dreambiscuit 9,691]

It’ll only last as long as people are willing to let it. Eventually everyone is going to get fed up with the induced hysteria and get on with living like rational, intelligent human beings. Simple, over-the counter treatments have already been found that are effective and people will start doing for themselves rather than wait around hiding in their homes for someone else to dictate their lives for them. There are more cases, and fatalities caused by the common flu than the corona virus by tens of thousands, but the media can’t spin that into a panic because it’s old news and everyone knows better. If everyone would employ a little common sense and basic precautions for themselves rather than listening to the dictates of the people who only exacerbate the matter, it would be far less a problem than the one that’s been created.  

[Yoshi89 5,293]

Once the weather gets warmer, so realistically sometime in June.

[Midnight Danny 9,025]

On 4/2/2020 at 12:48 PM, TheRockARooster said:

I hope it doesn't last long, I'm really tired of being a prisoner in my own home.

Same for me and i agree with you... it is really boring to stay all the weeks in house, actually l'm getting crazy sometimes

[Yoshi89 5,293]

3 hours ago, Bas said:

Is that a wish, a scientific based statement that the virus will budge before the weather or simply that it is politically not possible to keep it up on such temperatures because people want to go out no matter what?

Viruses hate hot weather. That's why flu numbers go down the further we get into spring. Even still, politicians on both sides have been guilty of encouraging people to go outside in spite of the pandemic. And some don't even follow their own stay at home orders for that matter.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-lori-lightfoot-haircut-20200406-jmyz2wtccnadlknya7hzbetevy-story.html

https://nypost.com/2020/03/16/de-blasio-hits-the-gym-one-last-time-before-coronavirus-shutdown/

Edited April 8, 2020 by Yoshi89

[Yoshi89 5,293]

3 minutes ago, Bas said:

Typo?

It was, good catch.

4 minutes ago, Bas said:

I don't think going outside is an issue though if you stay away from other persons.

Agreed on that as well. As long as the public heeds that and other warnings, the virus will warn its course. It's just a matter of when.

[Oblivion 20,266]

1 hour ago, Yoshi89 said:

It was, good catch.

Agreed on that as well. As long as the public heeds that and other warnings, the virus will warn its course. It's just a matter of when.

Also being in a tiny little town helps! 

[MangoFoalix 24,951]

Probably a few more months I guess.