Well, take for example Apple Bloom. We believe, much like we do for Scootaloo and Sweetie Belle, that we know what her special talent is already based on what we've seen from The Showstoppers. So, we think her cutie mark would be a hammer or something to represent her skill in carpentry, painting and that sort of craft. But she stated she likes kung-fu, which would be what her cutie mark would be if...um...free will decides what cutie mark a pony gets. She knows she likes kung-fu and based on the fact that a cutie mark requires recognition of the talent, it can't be what her talent is. Right?
But on the other hoof, looking at fate, we think that her cutie mark would be something to do with apples and that she is fated to it like the rest of her five billion relatives. And she also realizes that in Call of the Cutie when she tries a bunch of things with apples. Of course, she might have missed something aside from playing, eating and creating fine art for your home with them.
But this still doesn't exactly clear up the obvious question. Is her special talent really carpentry? Because that has nothing to do with her name like everypony else.