Could the movie do as well as a Disney movie?

[CastletonSnob 3,025]

Do you think the movie could do as well as a Disney movie in terms of box office?

[GrimGrimoire 4,970]

Could it? Sure it could... anything is possible after all.

Will it? Probably not. I see it doing well for what it is, but not as well as Disney does.

Disney can appeal to a much more massive audience than MLP can, and they usually have a much larger advertising campaign backing whatever film they are selling. Also, they usually don't carry the stigma that MLP will for many fans. You can see that by the amount of members on this forum for example, who have announced they are too scared to be caught seeing it in theaters, where they most likely would not bat an eye going to see Cars 3.

[CastletonSnob 3,025]

4 minutes ago, GrimGrimoire said:

Could it? Sure it could... anything is possible after all.

Will it? Probably not. I see it doing well for what it is, but not as well as Disney does.

Disney can appeal to a much more massive audience than MLP can, and they usually have a much larger advertising campaign backing whatever film they are selling. Also, they usually don't carry the stigma that MLP will for many fans. You can see that by the amount of members on this forum for example, who have announced they are too scared to be caught seeing it in theaters, where they most likely would not bat an eye going to see Cars 3.

Who said they're scared of being caught seeing it?

[GrimGrimoire 4,970]

15 minutes ago, VG_Addict said:

Who said they're scared of being caught seeing it?

There are several threads on the subject where people have expressed discomfort of seeing the film and having others discover them. Heck, there are threads from users terrified they will be caught watching the TV show in their own homes, much less a theater. You even have members talking about "coming out" as a "brony" as if they were announcing a sex change or religious conversion. Personally I don't see the problem, but for many it seems to be a very worrying issue.

However that being said, I have yet to see anyone say "I hope my family/friends don't find out I was watching The Fox and the Hound... I'll never hear the end of it!"

[Will Guide 21,325]

I do agree with some that the animation of the MLP movie feels like the 2d animation of Disney Renaissance Era from the 90's! Would be nice to show the haters of 3D Computer Animation that traditional animation is NOT completely dead; the SPIRIT of the old animation lives on in films such as this.

[Mesme Rize 15,681]

If you talk about numbers of recent disney movies like Moana and Zootopia, this movie is miles away from it.

I think the movie will do good enough for what it is and i think Hasbro will be glad that they will have millions of toys to sell, where the real money of the movie will be made.

 

[CastletonSnob 3,025]

1 minute ago, GrimGrimoire said:

There are several threads on the subject where people have expressed discomfort of seeing the film and having others discover them. Heck, there are threads from users terrified they will be caught watching the TV show in their own homes, much less a theater. You even have members talking about "coming out" as a "brony" as if they were announcing a sex change or religious conversion. Personally I don't see the problem, but for many it seems to be a very worrying issue.

However that being said, I have yet to see anyone say "I hope my family/friends don't find out I was watching The Fox and the Hound... I'll never hear the end of it!"

I have a feeling a lot of people will watch the movie online.

Just now, Mesme Rize said:

If you talk about numbers of recent disney movies like Moana and Zootopia, this movie is miles away from it.

I think the movie will do good enough for what it is and i think Hasbro will be glad that they will have millions of toys to sell, where the real money of the movie will be made.

 

I like how a scene from a movie made 30 years ago is still relevant today. 

[Mesme Rize 15,681]

Just now, VG_Addict said:

I have a feeling a lot of people will watch the movie online.

To be honest, the best thing i can do is wait for the blu-ray, because i have no intention of watching the german dub in the theatres.

That's also another thing. I think domestically, the movie will do good with bronies, as well with other english speaking countries. But i am not so sure with countries like Germany, because most bronies i know don't like to watch MLP in their native language.

Maybe i am wrong about that, but i think it's an important factor.

[GrimGrimoire 4,970]

Just now, VG_Addict said:

I have a feeling a lot of people will watch the movie online.

Well there is you answer to your question then.

 

41 minutes ago, VG_Addict said:

Do you think the movie could do as well as a Disney movie in terms of box office?

Nope, because many of them will watch it online so they don't get busted, and go to the theaters to catch the latest Disney/Pixar flick.

 

Sneaking it online won't do anything for box office sales.

[CastletonSnob 3,025]

1 minute ago, GrimGrimoire said:

Well there is you answer to your question then.

 

Nope, because many of them will watch it online so they don't get busted, and go to the theaters to catch the latest Disney/Pixar flick.

 

Sneaking it online won't do anything for box office sales.

OK, show me these threads of people worrying about going to see the movie. I believe you, but I don't wanna dig through the whole forum. 

[cmarston1 5,952]

Not at all.

I mean I guess it could do fine in the box office, but to the extent of something along the lines of Frozen or Zootopia, I highly highly highly doubt it would ever reach those numbers.

[Megas 27,069]

I mean I want the movie to do well but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Disney Movies get universal praise and appeal just by Disney's name alone. MLP still has all those years of negative stigma dragging. I don't see it breaking banks but if it reviews well, I see it doing well enough to make money.

At the very least I want the movie to do well enough for Hasbro to consider another animated Transformers movie

[Jeric 46,835]

No. 

OW box office will not exceed $40 million if things go well. Probably $30 million. Zootopia had just over $75 million OW I think. 

WW ... thinking maybe $160 all told. 

Two factors that could push that up are the number of adult fans that actually support it in the theater, and support it with repeated viewings.  Also, how foreign markets respond to language dubs. These are things that have already been mentioned. 

It won't do half of a big Disney movie. That isn't a bad thing though. Why does this keep coming up? Do people need to feel their tastes validated that badly? It will do fine. It won't be number one that weekend. It won't break records. It will sell toys and Hasbro will be happy. The brand remains viable and future stories will be assured. 

It doesn't need to be Frozen or even Despicable Me 3. 

[Steve Piranha 28,782]

I just hope the movie do well in the box office, but I doubt it'll reach Disney levels of box office success. Disney has a long history of successful films, and ponies, with the stigma and being the new kid in school are heavy obstacles it has to face

[Olsen1987 133]

i think the trailer alone is better than anything disney has done the recent years (then again, i haven't seen anything disney made in the recent years )

[Guest]

I don't think so, but anything could happen. The trailer looked really nice, so...

[Hierok 11,829]

I hope it will do as good as Disney, but I think Disney is to big to get in the range

[Marimo 555]

If it can make back several times its budget, than I think that would be good enough to consider it a success. I'm pretty sure the production budget is only going to be a few million, at the very least less than $10 million, and marketing might be a few million. Studios only get half the money made domestically (the other half goes to the theaters) and a quarter of what is made internationally, plus just making back the budget is still a failure since investors want to see the returns to be a much bigger amount than what they put in, not just slightly more.

The only major competition around the time it's coming out will be the Lego Ninjago movie, though it'll at least be 2 weeks between the two so hopefully that puts a little more distance for people looking for kids films. Don't need what happened with King Arthur coming the week after GotG 2 or The Mummy the week after WW happening to MLP. At the very least, the Lego Ninjago cartoon doesn't seem to have as much of a following as MLP, and even the Lego name, while being popular, only made a few hundred million with the Lego Movie and Lego Batman, and hopefully the fact that there already was one Lego movie this year will further dilute interest in the Ninjago movie.

The MLP movie may need to rely on getting positive reviews to drum up further interest. Negatively received movies usually can only rely on that big opening weekend plus money made internationally. This isn't exactly a summer blockbuster kind of picture that would get a bunch of money elsewhere, and it's not going to make a lot of money in the opening weekend like Batman v Superman. And BvS saw big drops weekend by weekend due to its negative reception, whereas Wonder Woman can start out with a smaller opening weekend, but because of its positive reception will have smaller drops in its box office week by week and its already the highest grossing DCEU movie domesitcally.

Overall, I just hope it does better than movies like Norm of the North, Rock Dog, and the upcoming Nut Job 2.

[Thrond 3,257]

I mean, Disney is a pretty high bar. Even in the best of hypothetical scenarios, I don't think the My Little Pony brand name holds enough clout to reach that level, as those Disney films are some of the most lucrative of any given year. Without knowing the budget, and in general without the ability to predict the future, it's hard to say how profitable My Little Pony: The Movie will be, but given the wide array of guest stars and all the weird focus-test-ish nonsense like the anthropomorphic cat and the edgy villain, I wonder how much confidence Lionsgate actually has in it. Studio expectations don't really translate into box office receipts, but it does make me nervous. 

With that said, My Little Pony is a recognizable brand, and while I don't know if the show still brings in respectable ratings, the target audience will definitely want to see it, which means a ticket for each kid as well as one for each accompanying parent. Animated kids' films like this are frequently lucrative, even with milquetoast reviews (see The Boss Baby for example), but it's gonna depend a lot on advertising, and Lionsgate has been fairly hesitant to run an advanced campaign. So, at this point, it's anybody's guess how well it'll do. 

[Tupek 33]

Dude, this will NOT do as well as a Disney movie at the B.O. It's still to "girly" to appeal to an audience as wide as not only Disney animation flicks but Dreamworks, Illumination, Fox, etc. 

2D is dead since too many years ago, the last 2D from Disney was "Princess and the Frog" and it barely crossed the $100million mark in the US.

My prediction is around $50-60 million in the US and more than $100m Worldwide.

[bwrosas 252]

I would expect it to be the #1 movie for it's opening weekend and that upcoming week (10/6-10/13), but then possibly drop off to around the top 5 the week after, and then maybe around the top 10 in it's 3rd week. Then possibly around mid-November you may start hearing rumblings of a release date for Digital HD and a separate release date for 4K/Blu-Ray/DVD.

[Moved to Elsewhere 11,329]

Probably not.

Disney is the king of family movies. They have the brand recognition and the longtime audience to have consistent success for years. MLP, while having an audience outside the target demographic, still has a 30 year stigma attached to it (just read some of  the comments on the Lionsgate upload of the trailer to prove that). There's also the fact that even in the brony fandom, there are those who are uncomfortable with sporting ponies in public, let alone walking up to a theater and buying a ticket for a movie of it. So some will probably either just wait for the DVD/Blu Ray, or just pirate it like they did with the EQG movies. 

I predict the movie will at least make back its budget. But who knows, maybe this could a Lego Movie thing where the overwhelmingly positive reviews help it at the box office.

[Jeric 46,835]

On 7/2/2017 at 9:04 PM, Marimo said:

, plus just making back the budget is still a failure since investors want to see the returns to be a much bigger amount than what they put in, not just slightly more.

I agree with everything you said except this, specifically because of this film and the parties involved. This is normally accurate if a production was ... well I'll use The Mummy. 

Besides genres, there is a major difference between the MLP and Mummy. Mummy doesn't have other revenue streams as lucrative as Pony. And Universal isn't as sneaky as Hasbro. Obviously merchandise is the end game here ... but it gets far more interesting that the film just being a funnel for another revenue stream. Hasbro did a brilliant thing back in 2014. You see, Hasbro investors aren't going to care as much if the film has even a 20% ROI unless merchandise sales fall short of expectations. 

Now you might call foul on that and say, "but Jeric what about Lionsgate Investors?"

...

Well ... in 2014 Hasbro added Lionsgate to the party and included a Lionsgate C-Level executive on the Hasbro Board. The guy is like the CEO's Darth Vader.

I guarantee that Feltheimer wouldn't place his boy Burns there without knowing that a obvious revenue sharing deal would act as an investor firewall. With their recent moves, Santa Monica has been popping bubbly non stop. The Rio Rancho debacle is a distant memory. 

I wouldn't worry about investor reactions based solely in box office. The eggs are in a lot of baskets, and the film is not the most important one.

[Will Guide 21,325]

On 7/2/2017 at 8:52 PM, Tupek said:

Dude, this will NOT do as well as a Disney movie at the B.O. It's still to "girly" to appeal to an audience as wide as not only Disney animation flicks but Dreamworks, Illumination, Fox, etc. 

2D is dead since too many years ago, the last 2D from Disney was "Princess and the Frog" and it barely crossed the $100million mark in the US.

My prediction is around $50-60 million in the US and more than $100m Worldwide.

Actually, Disney did "Winnie the Pooh" in 2011, 2 years after PatF, and that was traditional 2d animation too!

[Unlikeable Pony 2,698]

Most other kids movies (Look at things like smurfs and Chipmunks) gross over 300million, and MLP is an ongoing thing with a current fanbase.
At the same time, Those other kids movies are traditionally seen as "gender neutral", so its equally likely for boys and girls to both ask to be taken to see it, and for the parents to (on their own) think to take their kids to it. MLP has a very big uphill battle ahead of it to get boys in those seats without being taken because their sister wanted to see it.

 

I don't think it'll do nearly as good as a disney movie unless serious word of mouth reviews from critics start up stressing it as a great movie for males as well as girls.