Will the movie underperform?

[CastletonSnob 3,025]

I'm a little worried that the movie will underperform at the box office. What do you think?

[Concerned Bystander 2,901]

There seems to be a fair amount of paranoia on this site about this issue.  This film is not going to be a blockbuster, it's not going to smash box office records, it isn't going to be the next Frozen or Kung-Fu Panda.  Hasbro won't be expecting it to.  The MLP movie is going to look more like the Hey Arnold or Spongebob movies.

 

This film will not be considered a failure, or even underperforming if it doesn't shake the world.  It will be a modest release, looking for a modest success.  Whether or not it will achieve that modest level of success remains to be seen, it's still a long way off.

[CastletonSnob 3,025]

There seems to be a fair amount of paranoia on this site about this issue.  This film is not going to be a blockbuster, it's not going to smash box office records, it isn't going to be the next Frozen or Kung-Fu Panda.  Hasbro won't be expecting it to.  The MLP movie is going to look more like the Hey Arnold or Spongebob movies.

 

This film will not be considered a failure, or even underperforming if it doesn't shake the world.  It will be a modest release, looking for a modest success.  Whether or not it will achieve that modest level of success remains to be seen, it's still a long way off.

Do you think there will be a lot of bronies going to see the movie?

[cmarston1 5,952]

I don't honestly see this film getting anywhere the success of something like Frozen, but on the other hand, I don't see it being a total bomb. It will probably be a modest success or something.

[Concerned Bystander 2,901]

Do you think there will be a lot of bronies going to see the movie?

 

I imagine there will be a great many that will, and perhaps as many that won't.  Islolated Bronies whose only link to the fandom is the internet may be a little more nervous about going to see the film on their own, whereas areas with larger Brony populations will most likely flood the cinema in droves.

 

As for myself, I don't know any other fans in the real world, if my daughter wants to see it, I'll take her, if she doesn't, then I'll go and see it on my own.

[TheAnimatorOfficial 566]

I don't honestly see this film getting anywhere the success of something like Frozen, but on the other hand, I don't see it being a total bomb. It will probably be a modest success or something.

Okay, why are you guys even bringing up Frozen? $1.3 billion worldwide is a number no other animated film can reach. Really I think around $450 million worldwide (Lego Movie, HTTYD numbers) is a plausible number.

[Buck Testa 5,503]

I'm a little worried that the movie will underperform at the box office. What do you think?

depends what you mean by under-perform. If you are going to hold it up to Captain America Civil War then hell yeah. However I think It'll do just fine for the niche market its aiming towards. They aren't really competing with anyone when it comes to their movies. 

[Concerned Bystander 2,901]

 

 

Okay, why are you guys even bringing up Frozen? $1.3 billion worldwide is a number no other animated film can reach.

 

That's exactly the point of bringing it up.  Success for the MLP movie will look very different to success for a big Disney movie, or even a Dreamworks movie.

[TheAnimatorOfficial 566]

That's exactly the point of bringing it up. Success for the MLP movie will look very different to success for a big Disney movie, or even a Dreamworks movie.

MLP and Dreamworks pretty much have the same benchmark for success. Disney/Pixar is on a whole other level. The Good Dinosaur proved that no one is safe though.

[Concerned Bystander 2,901]

MLP and Dreamworks pretty much have the same benchmark for success. Disney/Pixar is on a whole other level. The Good Dinosaur proved that no one is safe though.

 

I'm inclined to disagree, I very much doubt that MLP will achieve the same scale of success as the likes of Kung-Fu Panda or How to Train Your Dragon.  Of course, unexpected things do happen, I'm sure Disney didn't expect The Good Dinosaur to bomb like it did, and it is possible (although maybe not likely) that MLP may perform well above any expectations.

[Guest]

Honestly, why is this such a concern for people? If the movie bombs and Hasbro decides to pull the plug will it be the end of the world? I mean at that point we'll have gotten 7 years of content. 7 years of official material to play with.

 

Honestly, I am just waiting for this film to come and go.

[TheAnimatorOfficial 566]

I'm inclined to disagree, I very much doubt that MLP will achieve the same scale of success as the likes of Kung-Fu Panda or How to Train Your Dragon. Of course, unexpected things do happen, I'm sure Disney didn't expect The Good Dinosaur to bomb like it did, and it is possible (although maybe not likely) that MLP may perform well above any expectations.

HTTYD wasn't that successful. It was a modest success at $494 million worldwide.

[Concerned Bystander 2,901]

HTTYD wasn't that successful. It was a modest success at $494 million worldwide.

 

That was still over $300m in takings though, which is better than either Pacific Rim or Battleship managed to gross.  Yes I know, they were both pretty terrible films, but my point is that those two, along with HTTYD were all aimed at a mass market, MLP is likely to have a much narrower appeal.

[TheSqueelyOne 157]

In the eyes of Hasbro, this is more than just a movie. DVD and especially toy sales will factor in heavily. So even if it doesn't make much at the box office, if toys sell well enough, it's still a success. It really doesn't have to achieve much, so there's not much chance of it underperforming.

[Rarity Is Best Pony 634]

which is better than either Pacific Rim or Battleship managed to gross.  Yes I know, they were both pretty terrible films,

 

Pacific Rim was awesome if you went into it expecting monsters fighting giant robots. I can't agree more however that Battleship was a god awful abomination of a film.

 

As for the MLP movie I expect it to be a moderate success where Hasbro at least breaks even. And in the end I can only assume that Hasbro would be pleased with this as they have done their job and hopefully parents or bronies will buy licensed merchandise from the film.

[Wind Chaser 4,767]

There are a lot of factors that determine whether a movie is considered a bomb or not.

 

For one, we haven't seen a trailer yet. That is the first place from which to gauge consumer interest in the movie. From there, we need to see just how well Lionsgate and Hasbro are going to market the film. Poor marketing campaigns have been the death knell of many great movies, including critically acclaimed ones.

 

Competition is also a big factor. We don't know for sure what movies it will open against, or how they're projected to perform, but here's a schedule of upcoming releases for the 2017 holidays around MLP's approximate release date. The holidays, along with the summer months, are a traditionally a time of very stiff competition at the box office.

 

Finally, there's critical reception and word-of-mouth, for when it actually does come to opening week. Mainstream critics can influence the perception of the film among mainstream audiences. For us, word of mouth will spread quickly in the fandom as to just how good or bad this movie is, from the review community on YouTube to the comments section on Equestria Daily to this very forum.

 

If we're looking at "modest" performance by general Hollywood standards, the target will probably be in the $100-300 million worldwide range at least.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Wind Chaser

[TheAnimatorOfficial 566]

There are a lot of factors that determine whether a movie is considered a bomb or not.

 

For one, we haven't seen a trailer yet. That is the first place from which to gauge consumer interest in the movie. From there, we need to see just how well Lionsgate and Hasbro are going to market the film. Poor marketing campaigns have been the death knell of many great movies, including critically acclaimed ones.

 

Competition is also a big factor. We don't know for sure what movies it will open against, or how they're projected to perform, but here's a schedule of upcoming releases for the 2017 holidays around MLP's approximate release date. The holidays, along with the summer months, are a traditionally a time of very stiff competition at the box office.

 

Finally, there's critical reception and word-of-mouth, for when it actually does come to opening week. Mainstream critics can influence the perception of the film among mainstream audiences. For us, word of mouth will spread quickly in the fandom as to just how good or bad this movie is, from the review community on YouTube to the comments section on Equestria Daily to this very forum.

 

If we're looking at "modest" performance by general Hollywood standards, the target will probably be in the $100-300 million worldwide range at least.

I'm guessing the marketing campaign will be on the satirical side like The Lego Movie and Deadpool.

[Jeric 46,835]

If the box office receipts cover production and marketing costs, Hasbro will be thrilled. Anything more than that will be a cherry on top. Merchandising and home viewing segments will make up the majority of the profit. The only x-factors here are the distributor agreement and investor expectations. If those are adequately managed ... I wouldn't focus on what is really a secondary revenue stream (box office receipts).

[Unlikeable Pony 2,698]

If the box office receipts cover production and marketing costs, Hasbro will be thrilled.

Not so sure there; Hasbro wants a *real* success that generates profit for itself, to indicate that they could make a sequel and still continue the road: This is hasbro's crown jewel franchise at the moment (MLP sales are greater than even transformers right now after all) and they most probably want a return that's at least comparable to their Transformers movies.

[Jeric 46,835]

Not so sure there; Hasbro wants a *real* success that generates profit for itself, to indicate that they could make a sequel and still continue the road: This is hasbro's crown jewel franchise at the moment (MLP sales are greater than even transformers right now after all) and they most probably want a return that's at least comparable to their Transformers movies.

 

 

That isn't how it really works anymore for films with built-in revenue segment. Most investor calls gloss over box office and focus on other channels. Even Disney does this since they have so many channels that are a more stable revenue stream (Theme Parks are a great example as they talk about these ... all ... the ... time!). Box office receipts are still media news because of exhibitor relations politics. Also, for clarity I do not mean the research firm that would call my ass at 1:00 am for BOR or PerCap data. :|  Another thing to remember is that because box office receipts are the only reportable key performance indicator available for news outlets. That last part is insignificant here, as I do not expect any news outlets to mention Pony unless it goes crazy and over-performs. Also, as I mentioned, a film that has no built in revenue stream does rely on box-office as a measurement of quality ... sad but true. 

 

The Transformers film can't be comparable for a few reasons, chief of which is Bay. While Hasbro would have been happy back last decade with having a net-zero advertising campaign, the director would not have been happy. He would be ostracized for anything less, so to secure him ... Hasbro had to basically support the film in different ways than it may have originally wanted to. Pony is different in this way. Most of the people in charge of the film have built in relationships with the toy manufacturer. In the end, in Hasbro's eyes this film is built to generate additional revenue elsewhere. Doesn't mean that Meghan and co. are going to deliver a sub-par product. The show was made to sell toys but it was quality story telling - and ratings never mattered. Same will likely be a focus in the film. 

 

Don't expect a blockbuster. Hasbro isn't ...

[CP3_P0n3 170]

That's kinda stretched out too far. But, I'm 90% sure the movie will be awesome for us fans the way the series are going right now     

[Foxy Socks 2,596]

I don't see it failing, but I doubt it would be more than a decent success. There are a lot of people in the fandom who seem to want to see it, and that's not even the target audience. I think it will be decent.

[PegasusGuard1337 21]

I have to say, I looked at this topic's name and chuckled because there's obviously quite a few people who think that just because it's a pony movie, it means it's not going to do well in the box office. 

 

Personally, as long as the movie is good, which I have every bit of confidence it will be, it doesn't really matter how it preforms in the box office, since Hasbro really isn't going to expect it to be breaking any box office records. Seeing as how the first Equestria Girls wasn't really that fantastic but managed to get two sequels, I don't think we need to get too worked up over this.

[SuperBrony87 506]

I wanna just say that if the movie looks and feels like MLP FiM... If indeed that's the movie. All I know is if the movie doesn't take place in the real world like The Smurfs turning MLP CG which may not be too bad but I'm getting off track here. I read a tweet that they got Leib Schreiber a Taye Diggs for the movie.

 

So I wonder if the movie will be like this huge deal with a pretty budget... All one can do is wait and see. We won't do any good getting all worked up over a film that's not even playing this year... Cough Power Rarngers 2017 Cough. Ahem! We fgot nowhere good over hyping Batman V Superman which I doubt was the movie's fault. The movie was trailored like crazy; Some that feel was too much in some detail and we all know how Batman V Superman turned out... Many mostly hated it.

I didn't as much, however, I can understand everyone's feelings behind them. I would have liked Superman to do more... Superman stuff. For Batman to be less paranoid in choosing simply to destroy Superman because he's got a lot of power (who could destroy the Earth if he wanted to) and more "The Great a Detective" and only want or choose the option of only taking down Superman if He ever turned evil or mind controlled by a combination of Poison Ivy's spores and kryptonite. He'd create some contingency for all the heroes should they turn which he inadvertently did in the DC animated film Justice League Doom.

 

What I'm trying to get at is people will always create films out of whatever or whoever. The possibility of sucking is always there, but it could also be awesome and worth the waiting. All we can do is either speculate and read too much into it or just let it come when it comes and see what happens.

 

I mean Equestria Girls is still happening and its got mixed reviews from bronies mostly. However, the movie probably will focus on the ponies and create some original plot for the film, possibly. That's all I'm gonna say about that. People ruin movies a lot by over speculating, theorizing and even potential plot leaks and spoilers ruining the film completely. I can't stop the Internet firm talking about films or T.V. shows. I can however say that I'm tired of it. I have to see some pony posting something about a film or T.V. show and well, sometimes you just can't escape the speculators and the theorists from doing what they do. I usually watch their videos after I've seen a film or T.V. show, that's all.

[Unlikeable Pony 2,698]

the first Equestria Girls wasn't really that fantastic but managed to get two sequels

 

Yes, but the EQG movies have to keep being made to advertise the EQG toy series. The Movie's just part of FIM, so the toy series isn't dependent on it being made for advertisement since the cartoon series exists.