health How Long Can The COVID-19 Lockdown Realistically Last?

[Denim&Venöm 18,701]

I'm hearing that this quarantine and national lockdown can go on all the way into June. but think about it. Can the U.S. really endure that long without people working or going out and spending? People have loans and rent to pay off. Business will go bankrupt when not just the people, but the companies they work for remain closed. the government will take a hit with such a huge decline in income tax. And how will the country cope when the percentage of unemployed and homeless double in the span of 3 months? We're on track to having an even worse great depression. Most concerning is the curtailing of constitutional rights. Most notably the right to assembly and freedom of religion. We should be able to peacefully gather where we want in a public place without police telling us it's illegal. And while I'm not a religious person by any means, how can a liquor store be deemed essential but a church has to keep it's doors closed. And why does the entire country need to be on lock down? Major cities and metropolitan ares make sense. Places with confirmed cases make sense. But not small towns and villages. Not places the farthest from any cases. 

TL:DR how long can a COVID-19 lock down realistically last before people become desperate and fed up and start to really pressure the country into reopening, virus and all?  

[DubWolf 17,247]

Well if it wasn’t too much to ask for a grand a month for every adult until this thing blew over, bills wouldn’t be an issue... but our leaders have different priorities.

Its not too late, and it hopefully won’t be super long. We don’t need to have a vaccine to end the quarantine. Just need to secure, contain, and protect. I mean, we need to keep the virus from spreading and flatten the curve.

Hopefully sooner than later.

[Here No Longer 5,276]

Okay, so counter-question, how long could living normal lives during a serious pandemic last?

 

That's the whole point. Living normal lives during a pandemic like this is an insane proposition that will cost thousands of lives... Also the argument "but the economy" at this point is laughable, at least in the US, because our economy is already in a massive recession and letting people die isn't going to fix that.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Angel_Dust

[SparklingSquirrels 21,331]

I hope it won't be that long but it really depends on how quickly governments are able to up their testing capability, then isolate positive testers and trace and isolate their contacts. Some countries have been doing a good job with testing (South Korea, Singapore, Iceland) and I think they'll be able to return back to normal faster... of course it's probably easier for smaller countries. The US might go on longer than a bunch of other places then since we have so many spread out population centers.

Most people aren't going to have serious symptoms but the sooner everyone everywhere takes this seriously, the sooner hospitals can build up their preparation and the government can focus on being more proactive than reactive.

I will say that I do hope borders open back up this summer even if other stuff remains closed. Let me quarantine for 14 days with my German boyfriend . Sadly those will probably be some of the last things to go back to normal since politicians love to point fingers at other countries...
 

55 minutes ago, Denim&Venöm said:

how can a liquor store be deemed essential

Liquor stores are essential because alcoholics can suffer serious withdrawals that may require hospitalization, and hospitals are trying to keep out as many people as possible so they can treat covid patients.

Edited April 2, 2020 by SparklingSwirls

[Lucky Bolt 35,062]

I wish I knew. One thing is for sure, the economy is gonna suffer and it’s gonna suffer very badly if things continue to be shutdown far into May/June. I genuinely hope we don’t stay shut down that long. 

[Meson Bolt 2,648]

Realistically I have no idea. It does suck for those people working hourly, they're paying their price of living out of pocket and not making any income. I really hope MBI programs that companies are setting up will help keep people afloat, but I'm sure that there are going to be several people suffering financially through this work drought.

Hopefully we get a handle on this virus and squash it before June, but personally I can't tell how long it'll be before we can all go back to normal.

[CheeryFox 23,820]

Probably 2-3 months or less. Projections paint things to be grim.

[SharpWit 2,613]

1 hour ago, Denim&Venöm said:

Most notably the right to assembly and freedom of religion. We should be able to peacefully gather where we want in a public place without police telling us it's illegal. And while I'm not a religious person by any means, how can a liquor store be deemed essential but a church has to keep it's doors closed.

 

59 minutes ago, SparklingSwirls said:

Liquor stores are essential because alcoholics can suffer serious withdrawals that may require hospitalization, and hospitals are trying to keep out as many people as possible so they can treat covid patients.

With the shortage on hand sanitizers and standard household disinfectants, liquor stores are one of the few places where the public can source a means to remove the coronavirus from frequented surface areas. Beverages with an alcohol content of over 60% have been found to be effective and although not legal, there is information readily available online on how to distill those that fall below this threshold with ease, and authorities appear to be looking the other way for the sake of public health.

Constitutional rights are second place to the safety of American citizens. This can come off as paradoxical considering those very rights are a means of protecting us, and doing away with those rights can become a slippery slope for the inset of tyranny. However, a little tyranny can be necessary when faced with stupidity. People gathering in churches or other places of worship, is no different to students celebrating spring break down in Florida right now, because it makes no difference to the virus. It has no regard for anyone and can only be avoided through social distancing. People can have it in their systems and not show symptoms for weeks. Right now we're very vulnerable because we're not prepared and as a whole haven't taken this crisis seriously enough.

I cannot emphasize this enough. Thousands of people have died, and at least tens of thousands more will if people don't follow the guidelines set before us. Symptoms may vary, but no one is immune. Isolated areas have been spared because they are isolated. If they follow the guidelines, then at the very least they'll be spared the personal losses of this pandemic. It only takes one individual to jeopardize a community. The virus can survive on plain surfaces for up to three days, and take up to 24 to show symptoms. People need to thoroughly wash their hands on a regular basis, and practice social distancing. If everyone hunkers down for a month, then we could potentially have those who are healthy return to work and normal life, while we take care of our sick and prepare for the next wave.

If everyone follows the guidelines, I think we can end the lockdown within 6 weeks. Sure there is and will continue to be a financial hit, but putting up with it in the now will result in less overall. The United State's Strategic Petroleum Reserve has enough for 34 days of crude oil at 2013 daily consumption levels, however the maximum daily withdrawal capabilities don't nearly reach an amount to sustain that kind of activity, so it would actually take 144 days to use up completely. The US produces more oil then it consumes so the reserve can be replenished and this is an area in which we can coordinate with international partners. Food is a bigger issue as we no longer have an actual strategic grain reserve, or at least any that hold actual grain since it was decided for some reason that their should be a financial trust instead to purchase it. If people get creative, I would bet that most have enough food on average in their homes to last a month or more, and there are plenty of dry goods that could be seized and delivered door to door by emergency workers and military personnel for some time. The benefit of a pandemic, is that it's a crisis in which the nation's infrastructure and production are merely halted and not actually damaged. When this is over, things can start up again right where they left off.

If we weren't allowed to leave our homes under any circumstances, I think we have the resources to be under lockdown for 6 months, but I wouldn't expect more than 2.

[simba86 1,541]

it's a game of chicken between getting a vaccine and medicine on the market and total economic collapse. we should do ok as long as the government keeps the stimulus money coming but I think we are in for a pretty brutal couple months at least. open everything up to soon and millions of people wind up in the hospital and a ton of people die, stay closed to long and things start to collapse

[Cash In 22,214]

If I could guess, I'd say this situation might last until June or July. Considering the way things are going, it wouldn't surprise me if it surpassed that estimate. I can't really give you much of an opinion in terms of the US, since I'm not a citizen. All I can say is that things aren't looking so bright for a lot of people, sadly.

[LeafFerret 3,382]

Maybe around 3-6 months at most. Also, am I the only one that doesn't seem bothered about being alone for this period of time? It's all about adapting to situations like this and change whenever it happens, once you get the hang of it, you don't think about it too much and basically treat as any other day with some changes.

[TheRockASaurus Rex 50,687]

I hope it doesn't last long, I'm really tired of being a prisoner in my own home.

[TotallyNotNyx 15,566]

Looking at how cases and deaths are rising, I'm thinking that we are in this for the long run, so it's gonna probably last for at least another month, maybe 2.

[Dabmanz 2,139]

The Economy can bounce back recessions are bound to happen but you cant bring back the thousands of people that could be lost by the virus if the lockdown does not last as long as it needs to. Plus the Economy is not completely shut down supermarkets are getting a lot of business and people that have online businesses where they can work at home and not come into contact with others can still work. Also the Gaming Industry is doing well atm because everyone is locked at home a lot more people will be playing video games and watching movies. Though this is the first time in history a pandemic like this has happened during the existence of the internet so its hard to predict how much the economy will be effected. 

[Tropical Melody 6,043]

Agenda

1. stop the virus.

2. any other business.

That's how serious this is guys.

It is having strong echoes with the influenza pandemic of 1918 - 19, which, if memory serves, killed 20 million worldwide, and which was more than everyone who died in the foregoing 1914 - 18 Great War. Seriously deep shit.

1. above is achieved by keeping social contact to absolute minimum. We will be advised what else accordingly, as and when.

 

[MangoFoalix 24,944]

Probably a few months, I am guessing.

[Olly 1,011]

18 hours ago, SharpWit said:

Constitutional rights are second place to the safety of American citizens.

No. Human rights are second to nothing, ever. The pretense of "Safety" is always used to no good long-term effect when you give the government power to steamroll over the usual course of law. 

 

This is getting really stupid. 

[SharpWit 2,613]

1 hour ago, Olly said:

No. Human rights are second to nothing, ever. The pretense of "Safety" is always used to no good long-term effect when you give the government power to steamroll over the usual course of law. 

 

This is getting really stupid. 

It's generally agreed that anything you do is fine until it has a negative impact on another person. By ignoring the guidelines, you put lives at risk. Life is the most basic of human rights, and the goal is to mitigate its loss. If you violate the guidelines, you are working against the welfare of others. Whether this is intentional or not, there has to be consequences. Making small sacrifices now will stop us from having to make bigger ones in the future. The sooner we take this seriously, the sooner things can return to a state of normalcy.

Please do your part. Keep to yourself, practice social distancing, and wash your hands regularly.

[Olly 1,011]

Just now, SharpWit said:

It's generally agreed that anything you do is fine until it has a negative impact on another person. By ignoring the guidelines, you put lives at risk. Life is the most basic of human rights, and the goal is to mitigate its loss. If you violate the guidelines, you are working against the welfare of others. Whether this is intentional or not, there has to be consequences. Making small sacrifices now will stop us from having to make bigger ones in the future. The sooner we take this seriously, the sooner things can return to a state of normalcy.

Please do your part. Keep to yourself, practice social distancing, and wash your hands regularly.

I'm a cleanly person regardless. In fact, I rarely ever get sick. What are the odds of actually catching the virus, let alone dying from it? low. Very low. A virus like this, with mild symptoms and an 80% recovery rate does not warrant fear, panic, mass hysteria. A temporary period of caution is fine, I'm just concerned more about people's paranoia. 

[Kyoshi Frost Wolf 41,309]

With how terribly the US has handled this, my guess is a two months minimum. At this point f**k the economy. Corporate health care and big pharma are part of the "economy" and seeing their greed bite them in the ass is hilarious. Life matters more than some economy, but I wonder if anyone will remember that once this is over. 

[SharpWit 2,613]

27 minutes ago, Olly said:

I'm a cleanly person regardless. In fact, I rarely ever get sick. What are the odds of actually catching the virus, let alone dying from it? low. Very low. A virus like this, with mild symptoms and an 80% recovery rate does not warrant fear, panic, mass hysteria. A temporary period of caution is fine, I'm just concerned more about people's paranoia. 

Thank you and congratulations on your hygiene. Odds are that at least half the United States will contract the virus if we fail to flatten the curve. While the average person is not at a high risk of dying, there are instances of this happening, and in infants, the elderly, and people with compromised immune systems and preexisting conditions are, and the gestation period along with the high infection rate make it essential that everyone cooperate. It's estimated that 100,000 people in the united states will die, and FEMA having put a request in for that many body bags means that's probably on the lower end of what we can expect. And 80% recovery would absolutely warrant fear, panic, and mass hysteria, along with an equally strong reaction to maintain law and order, because that's be 1 out of every 5 people dying. Thankfully it's not remotely that high, but the current rate is still cause for concern. If people follow the guidelines, then there won't be much for people to worry about. The paranoia we should be concerned over is the kind that inspires someone to derail a train because of a conspiracy.

[TBD 17,254]

I would say up to June at the least..although, I hope sooner than later (when it's safer of course). During that time I'll running out what to do and website to surf..leaving pornography the only thing un-browsed...let's hope it doesn't have to come to that.  (it's a joke) 

[Cirrus. 1,089]

Here in the US things could have been A LOT worse. Who knows how many cases we would have now if the travel bans to China and Europe weren't done as soon as they were.

Stay at home orders have definitely been helping, but the outbreak is going to be smoldering along for a while. Our big problem is obviously hospital capacity at a given time, and supplies of medical protective equipment and key medications due to so much of our manufacturing capacity being outsourced over the years.

 

Hopefully by the end of this month, testing is improved. WE NEED TO GET AN ANTIBODY TEST easily available so we can start getting immune people back to work and concentrate more on keeping the more vulnerable isolated, a lot of WHICH ARE PROBABLY RETIRED ALREADY ANYWAYS!

 

Keeping people on lock down is going to cause health issues from stress for people, physiologically and psychologically. The lockdown is really hurting people and business financially and is going to cause a world of hurt down the road too in many ways.

So how long can this lock-down realistically last? I really don't know as there are so many complicating factors. If it's longer than another month, it's going to be pretty bad picking up the pieces on the other end of this thing.

I think the best thing is to get antibody testing ramped up for prime working age people and keep the lock-down going for more vulnerable people. There's no win-win, but I see more trouble having a prolonged general lock-down.

 

As for me, I luckily can still work. I don't make a lot but I have enough saved to pay my mortgage and bills for at least 4 months if we get shut down (not even counting unemployment checks if it came to that).

To help avoid getting very sick I've been taking vitamin D, zinc, and some magnesium powder drink mix stuff I put in my water bottle. For vitamin C, I eat these small and not spicy fresh peppers.

I stocked up my freezer and other long term food early on before people got crazy. As for toilet paper and paper towel, I always would buy it when it was on a good sale so I always have enough in my basement for at least 6 months at any given time anyways. Same with my cat's food!

 

In general I've always had the mindset to be prepared as you reasonably can and avoid trouble if at all possible in many aspects of life.

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Cirrus.

[Sarperso 24]

I think it will last on the summer too. I think it will stay for 3-4 months.

[Vefka 1,499]

Nobody knows and it depends on country. Asian people are the most responsible citizens I know, they stayed at homes, followed orders and managed to overcome virus (afair there are about 2500 infected people left in China). On the other hand I have my country where every 10th calls you a coward and says that you deserve to die, not him. Plus small businesses are suffering now because they can't work but they still have to pay salaries and taxes, because of that owners just freak out and fire everyone