If the Mane 6 Held a Poker Night...

[Yellow Diamond 7,564]

So, I was recently inspired to open a discussion on this subject based on two things. First, the widely circulated picture of the Mane Six playing poker with one another. Second, Kyronea's thread about a FiM Poker Night.

 

The short term questions (since I posted this topic early by mistake): who do you think would win a No Limit Texas Hold 'Em game among the Mane Six? What kind of players do you think the ponies would be? Any other analysis is welcome. I will add my own shortly.

 

If you are confused by or do not know Texas Hold 'Em, you may refer to the Wikipedia entry for basic information.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Thereisnospoon303

[Jokuc 8,172]

Well, if you look at "Party of one" you'll see some pokerfaces when they lie to Pinkie. LOL

I have no idea. But probably Twilight Since she's very smart.

[Mister Jack 565]

 

 

That is all.

[Eenohay 318]

I have to say Pinkie Pie, she would be doing crazy stuff all the time and nopony would know wheter she is doing good or bad. And all of the others failed at lying in party of one.

 

Although Applejack, even though she is honesty and did the worst lying in that episode, was a pretty good liar in the Last Roundup, that dreaded episode, so good yet so bad.

 

And she's texan

[Jadefire 2,796]

Fluttershy.

 

Because that would be hilarious (if a bit cliche).

[Eenohay 318]

 

 

That is all.

 

Although that's just regular poker, not texas hold em

[Yellow Diamond 7,564]

Twilight Sparkle: Highly meticulous and very well aware of the odds. She’d know the numbers and the strategies with which to play in those situations. Twilight would however suffer from being rigid in her strategy and potentially obsessing with the numbers to the point where her strategy would become transparent. For example, she would bluff, but only because bluffing is deemed to be the optimal strategy for that hand. Thus players could get a quick read of her so long as they were attentive. Twilight might also panic if her hand did not play out as expected and become demoralized when encountering hands which defied her calculations as well as players who break away from conventional strategy.

 

Twilight’s ability to think several hands ahead, however, would provide her with an enormous advantage. She could outpace another player through being calculating and attentive to the details.

 

Rainbow Dash: Extraordinarily aggressive and instinctive. Dash would forgo the odds in favor of her gut. It would be a crapshoot as to whether she was successful or not on any given set of hands. She’d drive up the bets, try to force other players to keep up with her, and would be difficult to read as a result. Because of her aggressiveness and bravado, Dash would find it problematic to cut her losses when she was in over her head. Plus, her emotions would flare whenever the game reached a critical hand. If anyone would frequently break decorum with outbursts of joy or anguish, Dash is the likeliest candidate.

 

Applejack: Stubborn and confident. While Applejack grasp of the exact numbers wouldn’t be outstanding, her ability to read players based on the way they were betting and playing their cards would be uncanny. With only a few exceptional cases, AJ would not spend frivolously; her style would be strong and steady, built to last until the deciding hand. She might become exceedingly competitive and aggressive if properly goaded, and would have a hard time keeping her emotions in check if she went up against a player akin to Dash. In addition, Applejack would at times fail to back down from a hand she could not win. Yet nopony could assume that her straightforward nature is indicative of a poor card player. On the contrary, AJ might leave you high and dry.

 

Fluttershy: Excessively cautious and timid. Fluttershy would rarely if ever raise, mostly sticking to matching the minimum bet. By default, she would be a slow player, betting very little and allowing others to pitch into the pot. Such a strategy gives Fluttershy a unique advantage as reading her hand becomes exceedingly difficult. Fluttershy would suffer from a lack of confidence in her hand; overly aggressive players might force her back on her hooves and lead her to fold a relatively strong hand because her confidence waned. Fluttershy would almost never break decorum, remaining relatively quiet and taciturn.

 

Rarity: A perfectionist with an eye toward large pots. Rarity would be wonderful at making her hands hard to read, often luring unsuspecting players into believing she had little by way of a hand before crushing them and taking their bits. Because she plays to win, Rarity would avoid betting with cards which are ill-suited or lack a distinct advantage; she would prefer to play with matching suits or pairs in the pocket (i.e., the cards you receive pre-flop) as opposed to going based purely on odds or her gut. Should she lose, her table would never hear the end of it. On the flipside, Rarity would be quite the talker, and as such her persona would exude confidence—so long as she kept winning.

 

Pinkie Pie: Pure instinct and the luck of the draw. If you believe in game logic or a basic strategy, Pinkie would consistently upset your principles. In some hands she would bet ridiculous amounts of bits with nothing to show for it; other times she would unveil an unbelievable hand after playing conservatively. Players would be uncertain as to whether or not Pinkie had any idea how to play or was intentionally screwing with their expectation. Setting aside her Pinkie Sense, Pinkie would be formidable based on her uncanny ability to shape a long-term strategy seemingly by accidental occurrences. Pinkie’s one major shortfall would be her poor judgment of other players’ styles. She would also break decorum quite frequently, almost as much as Dash.

 

Who would win?

After browsing over my analysis, I’m inclined to say Applejack. I actually initially believed I would go with Pinkie, but she is too unpredictable to gauge how effective she might be from game to game. AJ, at least according to my opinion, is confident enough to trust her cards and perceptive enough to, in a paraphrasing of James Bond, play the pony across from her. She could offset her bouts of aggressiveness with otherwise savvy strategy.

[Queen Cassie 3,057]

Interesting how well your thoughts on how they'd play mesh with mine.

 

That said, I disagree that Applejack would win out overall. Honestly based on your analysis I'd say it'd be more likely that it'd come down to Twilight and Pinkie, or possibly Twilight and Rarity depending upon how lucky Pinkie is. A contest of wit versus luck/charm, a game that would be rather fun to watch to say the least.

[ProjectRKA 2,840]

Honestly, I think Twilight would win. But I also think that Rainbow Dash has a chance of winning.

Twilight would win because I'd assume that she can read body language fairly easily.

Body language is an important thing when you're playing poker. So, yeah.

 

Rainbow Dash on the other hoof, would be able to win by bluffing. She just seems like the type who'd do that quite often

[Daring Do 195]

The word Texas rakes it in! Applejack would definitely win that!

[Smokin'HotRarity 182]

that would make a greatepisode

[PoisonClaw 8,153]

Pinkie Pie would probably probably win, reasons being:

 

1- She would be so erratic none of the other players would be able to tell if she has any tells or is just as random as ever.

 

2. Her Pinkie Sense may or may not tell warn her when to fold, when somepony has a good hand or if there's bluffing going on.

 

Rainbow dash would probably put up a good fight though, bluffing every chance she can and going all in every other hand.

Edited March 2, 2012 by PoisonClaw

[Dundermiffly 27]

I could see Pinkie Pie winning out of either sheer dumb luck, or by using her Pinkie Sense.

[Stoner Spike 185]

Honestly, I think Twilight would win. But I also think that Rainbow Dash has a chance of winning.

Twilight would win because I'd assume that she can read body language fairly easily.

Body language is an important thing when you're playing poker. So, yeah.

 

Rainbow Dash on the other hoof, would be able to win by bluffing. She just seems like the type who'd do that quite often

 

Bet she can't read this.

I'd expect Pinkie or Twi to win...Pinkie Sense vs Sheer Strategy...who will win?

[Twi Rubix 726]

With Twilight being the smart one, she could have a good chance of winning, but with Pinkie being lucky, I really couldn't tell.

[Kodiak 431]

 

Honestly, I think Twilight would win.

 

'Nuff said.

[The Alpha Team 51]

AJ

[Jokuc 8,172]

I said Twilight but now when I think about it, in Read It and Weep Twilight says that Rainbow Dash ALWAYS win. But idk.

[Shadow Stallion 435]

Rainbow Dash would cheat, so I voted for her.

[Yellow Diamond 7,564]

Honestly, I think Twilight would win. But I also think that Rainbow Dash has a chance of winning.

Twilight would win because I'd assume that she can read body language fairly easily.

Body language is an important thing when you're playing poker. So, yeah.

 

Rainbow Dash on the other hoof, would be able to win by bluffing. She just seems like the type who'd do that quite often

 

Body language is only partly important in reading an opponent. The more essential (and reliable) aspects are reading their bets and how they react to your choices during a game. Are they pushing a lot into the pot? Are they slow playing? When are they inclined to fold or bet? The physical "tell" is overstated; it can occur but is not as helpful as what I just mentioned. For example, people might become nervous and twitchy when they have a good hand. Quite frequently such behavior is associated with bluffing with a poor hand.

 

Interesting how well your thoughts on how they'd play mesh with mine.

 

That said, I disagree that Applejack would win out overall. Honestly based on your analysis I'd say it'd be more likely that it'd come down to Twilight and Pinkie, or possibly Twilight and Rarity depending upon how lucky Pinkie is. A contest of wit versus luck/charm, a game that would be rather fun to watch to say the least.

 

Pinkie would probably get by on a lot of luck, yes, so her success is determined less by a practical methodology and more in throwing the other players off of their game. For example, I think Rainbow Dash would get torn to pieces pretty quickly because she would constantly be aggressive against Pinkie, whereas the rest of the ponies would be cautious. That's partly why I believe Dash would fare poorly in poker.

 

If we talk about Twilight, I'm under the assumption in this case she cannot count cards or use other tricks of that sort which would give her a distinct advantage. She nevertheless could make calculations and formulate strategies that the other ponies could not. My main opposition to her success is her confidence waning in the midst of a spell of "bad luck," or when the odds are not in playing correctly or normally. Then Twilight would suffer against Rarity and Pinkie. My logic behind AJ winning is her confidence and ability to read the motives of the rest of the Mane Six. She and Rarity are, in my opinion, the best equipped to play their opponents' hands rather than rely on their own.

Edited March 3, 2012 by Thereisnospoon303

[83awsm 234]

I think Pinkie would be the most challenging to read, expression wise, do to her random personality traits. Twilight would try to use her knowledge of the game to play it completely by the book, and RD would get super competitive with AJ.

[Queen Cassie 3,057]

 

Pinkie would probably get by on a lot of luck, yes, so her success is determined less by a practical methodology and more in throwing the other players off of their game. For example, I think Rainbow Dash would get torn to pieces pretty quickly because she would constantly be aggressive against Pinkie, whereas the rest of the ponies would be cautious. That's partly why I believe Dash would fare poorly in poker.

 

If we talk about Twilight, I'm under the assumption in this case she cannot count cards or use other tricks of that sort which would give her a distinct advantage. She nevertheless could make calculations and formulate strategies that the other ponies could not. My main opposition to her success is her confidence waning in the midst of a spell of "bad luck," or when the odds are not in playing correctly or normally. Then Twilight would suffer against Rarity and Pinkie. My logic behind AJ winning is her confidence and ability to read the motives of the rest of the Mane Six. She and Rarity are, in my opinion, the best equipped to play their opponents' hands rather than rely on their own.

 

Oh I have no doubt that Dashie would get torn to pieces ninety nine percent of the time. If they held more than one tournament, she might win one or two, but that picture aside Dashie would be more overconfident and aggressive than she should be, and she'd screw herself over while the other players wouldn't really have to do anything at all.

 

As for Twilight, you've got a fair point there. Twilight does have a tendency to get overly worked up and nervous when things start working against her plans. While her plans are going she's the epitome of calm and confidence, a shining beacon. But as soon as things start screwing up, she cracks.

 

I keep forgetting how often poker is a psychological game, where you play against each other's personalities rather than relying on pure skill...probably because I never get much of a chance to play it.

 

So you're probably right about AJ after all. The only thing is...AJ does have her own moments of overconfidence and/or stubborn behavior that would work against her. They don't come into play that often, but they do happen sometimes, possibly enough to make it more difficult for her to win than one might think otherwise.

 

Still...for the most part, as I said I agreed with your earlier analysis, and you've made good extra points besides.

[Yellow Diamond 7,564]

Oh I have no doubt that Dashie would get torn to pieces ninety nine percent of the time. If they held more than one tournament, she might win one or two, but that picture aside Dashie would be more overconfident and aggressive than she should be, and she'd screw herself over while the other players wouldn't really have to do anything at all.

 

As for Twilight, you've got a fair point there. Twilight does have a tendency to get overly worked up and nervous when things start working against her plans. While her plans are going she's the epitome of calm and confidence, a shining beacon. But as soon as things start screwing up, she cracks.

 

I keep forgetting how often poker is a psychological game, where you play against each other's personalities rather than relying on pure skill...probably because I never get much of a chance to play it.

 

So you're probably right about AJ after all. The only thing is...AJ does have her own moments of overconfidence and/or stubborn behavior that would work against her. They don't come into play that often, but they do happen sometimes, possibly enough to make it more difficult for her to win than one might think otherwise.

 

Still...for the most part, as I said I agreed with your earlier analysis, and you've made good extra points besides.

 

Each of the ponies are flawed, in one respect or another, when it comes to poker. It seems to me, though, that AJ and Rarity are best suited for a game which involves deception and reading social situations. That is, of course, only if we excuse Pinkie's extraordinary luck when playing games. Applejack and Rarity have the fewest leaks in the proverbial boat with respect to poker, while the other ponies have some debilitating flaws which would profoundly hinder their efforts to win. AJ is less prone than Rarity to make an enormous gamble unless she is well prepared.

 

If Twilight ever got on a roll, she would be next to unbeatable. She'd confound the other ponies with an advanced game strategy and lead them into making mistakes through planning several hands in advance.

 

On another note, Fluttershy would last through tournaments by virtue of her limited bets and conservative play. But ultimately she might lose a lot of chips by being forced to play weaker hands after foregoing stronger ones.

[ScarletDagger 88]

Twilight would win because in sure she had time to read about it and study it.

[Inactive01 5,298]

We've seen in The Last Roundup how excellent a liar Applejack can be. She can show it off in Texas Hold Em.